By Casey Harper

President Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk are in a messy divorce, but if Republicans aren’t careful, Musk may just get the house — the House of Representatives, that is.

Musk announced to the world this week that he is creating a third political party called the America Party. It’s not really the third party since we already have the Green Party, Libertarian Party, Andrew Yang’s Forward Party, and more. But Musk’s announcement appears to be the equivalent of the divorce papers between himself and President Trump, the man he once campaigned and spent millions of dollars to help get elected.

President Trump has cast many former allies aside since taking office, but they weren’t as wealthy as Musk. Musk is rich. Some say he is the richest in the world, and he has shown a willingness to pour hundreds of millions of dollars into one election cycle alone and risk the reputation of his companies for his own political purposes. While his popularity is dipping now, Musk also holds a special sway over young men, which have become a key demographic for Trump Republicans who have found suburban woman an unreliable demographic.

So what does it mean?

Should we expect an America Party candidate to win a presidential race or even create a sizable minority in the House or Senate? Probably not.

Could Musk use his money to force Republicans to spend big on normally safe seats and therefore lose other close races to Democrats? Absolutely.

Could Musk primary Republicans with candidates loyal to him and not Republican leadership that creates major headaches for getting any legislation passed and effectively nullify a Republican majority? Yes.

There is a good chance Republicans will lose at least one chamber of Congress in the midterms next year. That is the pattern we have seen play out over the last nine decades. But you can imagine a 2028 future where Vice President J.D. Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio leads a winning Republican ticket and manages to capture the House and Senate by a few seats.

The problem? That majority could be held hostage by an embittered Musk, who has funded a handful of key swing vote lawmakers in 2026 and 2028. Remember, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) usually can only afford to lose a vote or two, so Musk can win small and still have outsized influence because of his deep pockets.

Not to mention that Musk’s money could play a major role in the inevitable 2028 Republican primary. Vance? Rubio? Musk’s money could make the difference.

Most lawmakers in the House only raise and spend a few million dollars in an election cycle, some not even that much. A more expensive race could break $10 million, but that’s not the norm.

The latest reports show the Tesla founder spent more than a quarter of a billion dollars ($260 million) to help Trump in 2024. If that same amount were applied to Republican seats, it would be around a million dollars per seat in the House, more than enough to influence tight races. But Musk doesn’t need every seat. He only needs a handful in a tight vote.

Currently, many are writing off the SpaceX giant’s threats, but that may be because they see Musk as impotent in defeating a strong presidential candidate, especially with the loss in popularity he has seen among the Left.

In high-profile presidential races and even some Senate races, even Musk-level money seems unable to overcome the natural dynamics of the race. Former Vice President Kamala Harris famously outraised Trump in the last election, as did Hillary Clinton.

But that’s not what Republicans should be concerned about.

In any given House race with low turnout and little national attention, dumping $10 million into advertising either through the America Party or some collection of well-hidden Super PACs could primary certain Republicans out of their seats and replace them with Musk-ites or Libertarian Party candidates very grateful to the former DOGE chief.

Notably, the Libertarian Party leadership has said publicly that they are open to working with Musk.

Musk himself said that he plans to take on the “uniparty” in 2026.

“The way we’re going to crack the uniparty system is by using a variant of how Epaminondas shattered the myth of Spartan invincibility at Leuctra: Extremely concentrated force at a precise location on the battlefield,” Musk said.

His reference here is to a famous battle in Greek history where the underestimated and weaker army from the city of Thebes took on and defeated the Spartan army, which had gained a mythical reputation as unbeatable at that time. History tells us the general from Thebes defied the military protocols of his day by putting his best soldiers densely focused on the strongest point in the enemy line, risking losing the entire rest of his army, which was left exposed. But the plan worked — the warriors from Thebes broke the Spartan line like an arrowhead, and the rest of the Spartans fled — a fateful battle that ended Spartan hegemony.

On top of that, no one knows what the future of a post-Trump Republican Party looks like. Trump is a magnetic political force able to hold off Musk, but what about a weaker candidate? Or what if Republicans put forth a presidential candidate who is seen as a departure from MAGA and a return to the old, RINO establishment ways? Suddenly, Musk and others like him could see their influence sway. They will be seen as prophetic voices who were right to warn you about the Republican Party.

See how George Sorors has handily taken over much of the judicial system in the U.S. with the same strategy. He releases his fortune into small prosecutor races, which are now an overwhelming force. Now, cities around the country are paying the price. 

Musk’s limits have repeatedly been shown, however, from his failures to fulfill his promises with DOGE to his inability to influence a key Wisconsin election.

And Trump can probably weather the Musk storm, even if he causes headaches in the primaries. But an ambitious Vance or Rubio hoping to nab the nomination might do well to mediate a peace deal or at least work to win over the rocket ship billionaire in time for a 2028 White House bid.

Casey Harper is managing editor for broadcast for The Washington Stand and host of the Outstanding podcast.