Dictator and narco-terrorist Nicolas Maduro was captured by U.S. forces in a thrilling nighttime raid on his palace in Caracas, Venezuela, in an operation codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve. The mission involved over 150 aircraft launched from around 20 bases across the hemisphere. It neutralized much of Venezuela’s air defenses, cut power in Caracas, and ended with Delta Force troops detaining Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, as they attempted to reach a safe room. Within hours, they were flown to New York, where they are now being held to face narco-terrorism charges, among other things.

Most Democrats and left-wing media figures have derided President Donald Trump’s actions as an unconstitutional, unauthorized declaration of war against Venezuela. But the fact is that the Biden administration and the Trump administration have never recognized Maduro as the legitimate leader of Venezuela. And the Biden administration even put a $25 million bounty on Maduro’s head for information leading to his arrest and conviction.

You see, this was not a declaration of war at all. This was an operation to take down not the leader of a sovereign nation but the leader and enabler of a network of deadly cartels that have imported hundreds of tons of cocaine and other drugs, including fentanyl, into the United States, killing countless Americans. This was an operation to arrest a narco-terrorist, not a head of state.

Trump said after the raid that the United States would “run” Venezuela until a transition has occurred, though Secretary of State Marco Rubio has tried to walk back that statement by denying a formal occupation while still implying a strong U.S. leverage over whoever governs Caracas next. But we’ve seen this story before.

In 2003, U.S. and coalition forces toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq in a matter of weeks. The United States set up the Coalition Provisional Authority, which assumed full executive, legislative and juridical authority over Iraq, and eventually enabled the United States to handpick Hussein’s successors. The power vacuum and disbanding of the Iraqi army in 2003 fueled a brutal insurgency and civil war, with hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and nearly 4,500 U.S. troops killed before the formal U.S. withdrawal in 2011. The chaos also created conditions for groups like al-Qaeda and later ISIS, which at one point controlled large parts of Iraqi and Syrian territory, to gain a stronghold over the nation, eventually forcing yet another U.S. military intervention years later.

If Trump believes that simply taking control of Venezuela is going to be a walk in the park, he would be sorely mistaken. At the very least, though, there are already leaders such as Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia and Maria Corina Machado, who together are estimated by some analysts to command support from roughly 70% of Venezuelans and who claim a clear democratic mandate after the 2024 election.

But there’s always a caveat to this whole thing. Whoever’s in charge will most likely have to play by Trump’s rules. Venezuela is not only close to the United States but also one of the most important countries in the world in terms of its natural resources. It ranks first globally in oil reserves, with roughly 18% of the world’s total barrels. It also has enormous reserves of natural gas, gold, iron ore, nickel and even rare earth elements.

In fact, Trump has already argued that Venezuela’s oil effectively belongs to the United States. He has described Venezuela’s past nationalizations, particularly from the 1970s through the 2000s, when the government took over foreign-owned oil operations, as “stolen” U.S. property. One of his top advisers, Stephen Miller, echoed that claim, calling it the “largest theft of American wealth and property.”

The United States faces a serious dilemma after capturing the brutal dictator who caused the deaths of many Americans through narco-trafficking. And even amid Venezuelan street celebrations, a dangerous power vacuum may be brewing. Venezuela’s military is still intact and has explicitly endorsed the sanctioned Vice President Delcy Rodriguez as interim leader; Rodriguez is also backed by Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez and others.

So it won’t be a simple vote that decides Venezuela’s future. There will be fights, maybe even a civil war, just like we had in Iraq all those years ago. Every country has a military, and every country has politicians who want power. The question that now remains is whether Trump can ensure that those who are in power are supported by the Venezuelan people, and that the military and Maduro’s goons in government won’t get their way.

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