By Sarah Holliday

Have you ever heard of “The God Gap”? It’s the term Ryan Burge, a professor at Washington University, used to explain the growing religious divide between red and blue American voters. Though no party is perfect (nor will either party ever be perfect), the case Burge makes is not only interesting — it’s telling.

To showcase “The God Gap,” Burge laid out the statistics, and he did so primarily by showing “how the religious composition of Trump’s voters diverged from those who cast a ballot for Kamala Harris” in the 2024 presidential election — trends that have widened significantly since the 2008 election.

The numbers on religious service attendance are striking. For Republicans, weekly attendance among Trump voters held steady at around 35% across his campaigns, down from 44% for McCain voters in 2008. The share who seldom or never attend rose to 42%. This may not look good for the GOP, and yet, Democrats were the ones who shifted dramatically toward secularism. Roughly two-thirds of Harris voters attended services seldom or never, which rose sharply from around 50% for Obama in 2008. Only 17% of Harris voters attended weekly.

The religious composition of the coalitions further underscores this divide. Evangelicals formed 42% of Trump’s 2024 voters (up slightly from 38% of McCain’s in 2008). Overall, 80% of Trump voters identified as Christian, with 17% non-religious and “nothing in particular” (nones) at 12%. Atheists/agnostics clocked in at only 5%. In contrast, just 48% of Harris voters were Christian, while nones climbed 10 points from 2008 to 45%, with atheists/agnostics alone at about 25%. White Catholics made up only 11% of Harris voters. As Burge put it, “If that’s not the God Gap, I don’t know what is.”

Age could reveal where these trends are heading. Among young voters (under 35), nones rose to 26% of Trump’s coalition (from 19% of young McCain voters in 2008), while white Christians dominated 82% of older (over 65) Trump voters. For Harris, the youth tilt was notable: 57% of young supporters were non-religious, and white Christians fell about six points from young Obama voters. Even Harris voters over the age of 65 saw non-religious shares increase from 22% in 2008 with Obama to 36%.

The bottom line? A massive number of Republican voters are religious. In turn, a massive number of Democratic voters are not religious. Or as Burge revealed, “The GOP vote is 80% Christian and 17% non-religious. The Democratic vote is 48% Christian and 45% non-religious. That’s the God Gap.” And according to Burge, this widening God Gap signals religion — particularly white Christianity — becoming increasingly “Republican-coded,” while Democrats rely heavily on the growing ranks of the nones and secularists.

What’s interesting about Burge’s analysis is that, even though the Republican Party has shifted toward secularism, evangelicals were “incredibly important to the GOP on election day.” As he went on to note, “It’s hard to overstate this fact. In 2008, 38% of all McCain’s voters were evangelical. When Trump won in 2024, 42% of his ballots came from evangelicals. There is no more important voting bloc in the country than evangelicals if you are Republican. It’s basically impossible to win any race without their support.” To further emphasize his point, Burge stressed how “the GOP is a party of Christians.” And considering 70% comes from “white Christians,” he further claimed that “the GOP is the party of white Christianity.”

“So,” Burge asked, “how do Democrats not get blown out in every election? It’s the nones. That’s the answer. There are a lot of nones and they lean heavily towards the Democrats” — now being “about a quarter of the Democratic Party. If you throw the nothing in particulars in there, the nones make up 45% of all Democratic votes cast. That’s up 10 points since 2008.” This is also interesting because, following Burge’s observations to their logical end, atheists and agnostics were incredibly important to the Democrats on Election Day. It’s the complete opposite end of the spectrum.

So, what does all this information reveal? Burge argued it has to do with navigation — two political parties facing “significant demographic shifts in the population” that will undoubtedly impact campaigning, coalition building, and the like. However, here’s what else we should get out of it: showing up matters.

The real changing of the tide comes with people, convicted and emboldened, taking their values to the public square, to the people in your community, to the ballot boxes.  

This God Gap is far more than an intriguing statistical curiosity. Instead, it exposes a profound reality that deeply held convictions, whether anchored in vibrant faith or resolute secularism, drive political engagement and turnout. The groups that consistently show up, motivated by core beliefs, do not merely participate in elections; they decisively shape them, often dwarfing the influence of the silent or disengaged — even if they’re in the majority. In an age of rapid demographic change, victory often belongs to the side that most effectively mobilizes its most committed base. For people of faith, this is not a gentle suggestion but an urgent, non-negotiable imperative telling us that active, courageous participation in the public square is essential if biblical values are to retain any meaningful voice in shaping the public square.

In the end, God remains sovereign over all. No matter how bleak or chaotic the political landscape may seem, we serve an eternal King who has already secured the ultimate victory. As Scripture declares, His dominion is everlasting; His Lordship is not subject to ballots or polls, for His Kingdom will never end. And yet, here’s the vital truth we cannot overlook: God’s absolute sovereignty — in full control of every throne, election, and outcome — does not absolve us of responsibility. It does not grant permission to withdraw, to grow complacent, or to sit idle while the cultural tide shifts. On the contrary, it emboldens us to faithful action, knowing that our efforts are never in vain in the hands of the One who reigns supreme.

Sarah Holliday is a reporter at The Washington Stand.