Joe Bastardi / February 14, 2013

Deceit or Ignorance? You Be the Judge

The recent blizzard in the Northeast was called first by on February 3, the Sunday before the storm. I pulled out maps of the infamous Lindsay Storm of February 9-10, 1969 and then compared this storm to it – *5* days in advance. At that time, other forecasts for Friday in the blizzard impacted areas were for highs between 40-45 with a *CHANCE* of rain or snow. A chance of rain or snow and a high between 40-45 does not describe what happened, just as forecasts out to sea with Hurricane Sandy as a subtropical storm 4 days before doesn’t, either. Because of such things, the “unexpected” nature that the public was lead to believe in supplies fertile soil for those who drive the AWG propaganda machine and put forth misinformation about these storms.

The recent blizzard in the Northeast was called first by on Feb. 3, the Sunday before the storm. I pulled out maps of the infamous Lindsay Storm of Feb. 9-10, 1969, and then compared this storm to it – five days in advance. At that time, other forecasts for Friday in the blizzard impact areas were for highs between 40 and 45 degrees with a CHANCE of rain or snow.

A forecast calling for a chance of rain or snow and a high between 40 and 45 degrees does not describe what happened, just as the forecasts calling for Hurricane Sandy to escape out to sea as a subtropical storm don’t either. Because of this, the “unexpected” nature of the storm that the public was led to believe in supplies fertile soil for those who drive the AWG propaganda machine and put forth misinformation about these storms.

Unlike the Lindsay Storm, where the epicenter of the 15-30 inches of snow was almost right over New York City, this was a bit further east. The point is that, once again, in spite of a predictable and similar event to what had occurred before, this is being used as a propaganda tool for global warming/climate change folks (I keep getting the terms mixed up – it’s bound to change tomorrow). They’re either simply lying or they are relying on a negligent low-information population so they can then try to convince them that everything that happens is because they are right.

Why should anyone trust people who had no idea five days before what was going on when they come out after the fact claiming it’s because of global warming/climate change? (Want to make sure I have the right term covered…)

For the people who somehow believe what just happened is a sign of an AGW-driven atmospheric apocalypse, here’s a list of over 80 storms of note that have hit the eastern U.S. This is nowhere near unprecedented.

Now let’s get to Sandy one more time.

I think I am qualified to talk on Sandy given I predicted the hit nine days beforehand to both clients and the public for the area impacted. Here’s a quote from Fox News’ Sean Hannity, who received the first forecast on Oct. 21st – before this was even a depression!

Joe Bastardi and the WeatherBELL team warned us about Hurricane Sandy nine days before landfall. They provided unwavering forecasts for a landfalling hurricane around New York City, and we were the first to know that this unprecedented event would occur.

Take a look at this track from 1967 of Dora, a Category 2 hurricane. Had it started its westward run at a slightly more western longitude, Dora would have devastated the East Coast as bad or worse than Sandy.

Again, it’s a matter of a hundred miles, nothing within the realm of what the atmosphere can do.

But let’s take a look at several more storms:

1.) Category 4 Hurricane Hazel in 1954, which hit the North Carolina in mid-October and whose upper pattern I used to set up Sandy for her run. The map at landfall:

The track of this monster: (Notice the north-northwest path into the Carolinas then almost due north afterward – in October!)

What if the track was 150 miles east of that? A Category 4 hurricane would have hit the Mid Atlantic coast running in from the ocean. Again, that kind of track difference is nothing in terms of the weather, a whim of the pattern at the given time.

2.) The 1938 hurricane.

The map:

The track did not veer out to sea. Instead it came north through Long Island with reports of a 30- to 40-foot storm surge and wind gusts to 186 m.p.h. Five-minute sustained winds registered at 121 m.p.h. at Blue Hill, Massachusetts! It’s hard to even comprehend that!

Seventy-five miles further west and the full weight of the storm surge is into New York City! In fact, the disaster scenario played out in the storm surge models has a 20-foot-plus scenario in New York City, and this has been talked about for over 25 years as something that we may have to contend with one day – not because of climate change or AGW (whichever it is) but because that is what nature can and probably one day will do!

When you look at these tracks, it’s simply the whim of the weather that a storm worse than Sandy has not happened. There is nothing magical or mystical about this.

Or how about the 1903 hurricane in Atlantic City?

Or Agnes in 1972 with its devastating floods and snow in West Virginia – on the first day of summer!?

What you don’t know can hurt you, as we see people who are either ignorant or know the facts and are trying to deceive people so they can push their agenda. It has to be one or the other. You either don’t know, in which case you are not qualified to make such statements, or you do and are trying to deceive people.

So is it deceit or ignorance or just one honest mistake after another? You make the call!

In the meantime, here is a segment I did on this matter on the Blaze TV Real News Segment. You may find it interesting:

Joe Bastardi is chief forecaster at WeatherBELL Analytics, a meteorological consulting firm.

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