Joe Bastardi / September 21, 2013

Facts on Arctic Ice & Colorado Floods

With Arctic ice rounding the bend and starting well above last year’s level, will anyone call to account people that said the icecap will be gone by 2013 (one of them being our secretary of state)? We are actually seeing some of the same folks who in 2007 said the icecap was in a death spiral now claiming their climate models forecasted this increase. If these people want to think “globally,” then let’s think globally – as in total global sea ice, which is at the same level it was when this scam began gaining steam in 1990.

With Arctic ice rounding the bend and starting well above last year’s level, will anyone call to account people that said the icecap will be gone by 2013 (one of them being our secretary of state)? We are actually seeing some of the same folks who in 2007 said the icecap was in a death spiral now claiming their climate models forecasted this increase.

If these people want to think “globally,” then let’s talk globally – as in total global sea ice, which is at the same level it was when this scam began gaining steam in 1990.

There is no tipping point. There is no catastrophic ice melt. When the Northern Hemisphere ice cap shrinks because of natural processes, ice in the Southern Hemisphere expands. Let’s just hope that when the Arctic ice cap begins expanding once the Atlantic comes out of its warm cycle the Antarctic shrinks. There’s simply no defense for all this hysteria. It’s a natural swing.

So let’s talk globally and look at the total picture. I’m all for that.

The recent horrific floods in Colorado have the climatic ambulance chasers blasting their sirens down any blind alley that that would have them (example: much of the mainstream media). Will anyone call the people to account that once claimed Colorado was going into a permanent drought, like this forecast from 2006? Global Warming to Dry Up Colorado.

By the way, the overall signal in the US is drier than normal than it was in the 1950s. But right now the drought in the southwest, while in some spots very bad, is overall according to NOAA a 1-in-5 year event. So we have all these people saying it was going to dry up, which would be a reversal from the previous 30 years which were wet because that is what 30 years of a warm Pacific Decadol Oscillation will do.

Since that Pacific Decadol Oscillation turned cold, the US has begun to dry out overall. But let’s take a look at the Palmer Drought index between 2007-2012.

It was certainly drier than it was the previous 30 years, but it’s not as dry as the 1950s!

So when the climatic ambulance chasers claim droughts and floods are from humans, how is it the 1950s (which pale in comparison to the 1930s) were worse than what has been happening? How do you get to claim you are right when the opposite happens?

A lot is being made about two tropical systems hitting Mexico – one from the Bay of Campech and one from the Pacific, all within 24 hours. However, we’ve been there, done that, in 1958 (there’s that inconvenient decade again!)

A major hit may occur on Hong Kong shortly that will attract attention, but the typhoon season is less than 50% of normal! The big picture makes no difference to this ilk when it’s an inconvenient truth opposite of all they have said.

There’s no question the flooding in Colorado was horrific. But was it “Biblical” or “unprecedented” in magnitude? Hardly.

One example: 1965 Colorado Flood Covered the Entire Southeast Quadrant of the State.

Here’s another: 1935 Colorado Flood – 24 Inches of Rain in One Day.

The disaster in Colorado is undoubtedly tragic. But the following link sets the record straight on past events that were similar or even worse.

The fact that people are making statements they know to be wrong (or are ignorant of the facts) prove this is not about science – it’s about an agenda. They may never grow tired of being deceptive to push their agenda, but those of us that know the weather and climate will not get tired of countering it – and not simply with one example, but many. If people think it’s cherry picking, well, the Orchard is loaded with fruit.

Joe Bastardi is chief forecaster at WeatherBELL Analytics, a meteorological consulting firm.

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