The Right Opinion

A Theory on Low Global Tropical Activity

By Joe Bastardi · Apr. 1, 2014

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) came out with a report that indicates we are all living on borrowed time as far as the global warming situation goes. There is no way I am going to cede the term “climate change” to them since the climate is always in a state of change. That ploy is simply a smokescreen because of how bad they busted with the hysteria they were whipping up about the globe warming. They should be held accountable for what they said, and not simply co-opt a redundant term that is a natural fact.

But I wish to show you an example of how I can link a natural event to the downturn in tropical activity and the global temperature – and it’s because I need to know these things that I can formulate a theory on it that is better than one that is obviously, over the last 17 years and 6 months, completely disconnected with reality. It was them, not us, that put out models that have busted.

As you will see below, the cooling has continued.

My theory is simple to understand: The global temperature responds to the great thermostat known as the oceans, and most importantly, the tropical oceans give us a huge clue as to where temperatures are heading. As Dr. Bill Gray correctly discovered back in the 1970s, the vast three-dimensional circulation of the earth’s oceans is one that has its origin not in recent events, but in a period of many years, decades, and even centuries of action and reaction of a planet in constant search of a balance it can never have because of its very design. The unmoved mover of the climate? The design of the system: More land in the Northern Hemisphere than southern; a wobble on its axis creating seasons; an open ocean at its northern pole (covered in ice) but a continent making up its southern pole; and so on and so on. It is incapable of attaining a perfect balance.

Once again here’s the reference to Dr. William Gray’s paper.

The peak of the Pacific warming arguably occurred with the super nino of 1997-1998 as the La nina behind it was long lived. There was a response to warmer again in the mid-2000s, before what could be termed a true cold Pacific Decadol Oscillation was finally christened shortly after.

But let me ask you this: If you look at Dr. Vincent Gray’s record of CO2 and temperatures, can you see any linkage between CO2 and the earth’s temperature in the geological time scale?

Can you see in recent times the splitting away of temperatures (unforecasted by the IPCC, and even worse, being used now in EPA endangerment findings to form policy on energy) from CO2?

Now let’s look at the temperature since the atmosphere arguably adjusted to the warming Pacific, seen here in the Multivariate Enso Index plots, a measure of the warmth or coolness of the regions that determine the state of the El Nino or La Nina. Notice how warm the ENSO regions were in the ‘80s and '90s, and how they are going back to where they were in the '50s and '70s now.

Now look at the National Center for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) CFSR global temps. since 2005, or the peak of the overall warming of the ENSO areas of the Pacific in the longer term. (NCEP is not a right wing think tank.)

They have started a downward drift!

Now link this to the Global ACE index which is the gold standard of measuring tropical activity, from Dr. Ryan Maue.

The peak was reached while the Pacific was in its warmest state and similar to the downturn in the ocean and the global temperature, clearly shown above. It has retreated to the low levels we see now!

Let’s look at the 400 mb level specific humidity in the warm PDO years of 1980-2005. This is a level that is crucial in the tropics. If it’s moist, the low level waves that become storms are able to develop vertically in a non-hostile environment. Quite simply put, the more moist the air is, the more conducive the atmosphere is for development. (Bluish colors represent moisture.)

Now look at the plummeting ACE years since the Pacific turned colder.

It has dried tremendously! This means wet bulb temperatures are lower at crucial levels in the tropics, and storms have to “work harder” to combat dry air to form. It’s exactly opposite of the propaganda that was spewed in an Inconvenient Truth; exactly opposite of what you have been told about so-called “trapping hot spots” (another EPA holy grail in the lines of evidence that is completely wrong); exactly opposite of what was forecasted by these people; and opposite of the panic buttons they are trying to push.

What was it Einstein said?

“No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong.”

In this case, it is I who have put forth the theory that should now be challenged, because it has a much greater chance of standing up to Einstein’s statement than the obviously incorrect assumption by people now trying to ramp up even further their hysteria over a ghost that time after time is proven to be gone.

You have to understand, you must do the work to give yourself a chance to be right. There is no assurance that just because you work hard, you are going to win; but you improve your chance. Have you seen any of the so-called Giants of Climate Science alarmists doing this? Of course not. Do you see them looking at the direct contradictions to their ideas and having the humility to back off or even question them?

It’s my business to know these things. The wading into the climate fight is because I am constantly looking at this. These observations form a simple, easy to understand theory: The atmosphere warms because the oceans have the most bang for the buck. Simply look at the mixing ratios on a skew T chart and notice that a 1 degree movement at an 80 wet bulb needs something like a 15-20 F degree movement at around 0F to counter it. Once the atmosphere adapted to the warming ocean, a peak was reached, but as nature will do, the swing back started. It was like pulling the rug out from under the feet of the driver of the higher global ACE index and the natural driver of the warming that had taken place. You don’t have to believe it. I may not be right, but it’s a heck of a lot clearer linkage and theory given the complete disconnect from CO2 and global temperatures. Alarmists have obviously have not looked at this because it really does not mean to them what it does to someone that needs to be right to have any chance to survive in this field. Or if they do, they simply ignore it because whatever message they want to spout does not agree.

I think all of us will agree that, at the very least, for the past 10 years, there is linkage to the Pacific flipping its cycle, the drying over the tropics and the cooling of the global temperature and the falling ACE index. Nowhere did anyone pushing this global warming agenda have any inkling this was going to happen.

As the globe adjusts to cooling there should be a re-firing of the ACE, likely to start in the southwest Pacific first. In fact, though the Atlantic and southeast Pacific ace may be below average this year, the southwest Pacific is likely to be above, But when major cyclones hit – and they will – do not buy the climatic ambulance chasers’ idea that this is the worst ever. Not only is this an absolute falsehood, but they have no idea of what is really going on to drive this.

More and more we are living in a world that is a house of cards built on deception. The people doing the deceiving are smart enough to know how to manipulate those that choose to simply accept rather than actually look – a shame given what could be, and what is actually turning into a painful self-inflicted demise. Climate and weather are a prime example, and there is no better example than the nonsense about tropical cyclones.

Joe Bastardi is chief forecaster at WeatherBELL Analytics, a meteorological consulting firm.

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