> ###El Nino in Serious Trouble; Upcoming Winter In Question

Excuse me? This has been taken apart for over three months by people like me. Look at the article below, first written April 13.

It was the first of many on Weatherbell.com premium dissecting the reasons for the AGW-driven hysteria of a Super Niño. And this is the fifth time I have caught someone driving this train since the 1997 Super Niño. Every time an El Niño looked like it would appear, they screamed Super Nino. But I started with this post, entitled, “SuperNINOBustalicioushypetoomuchadosis.”

That is Super Niño Bust a licious hype too much a dosis.

Why that title?

1.) The Super Niño idea was going to bust, and Joe D'Aleo and I at Weatherbell.com knew it.

2.) It defies logic. They know the Niño spikes the global temperature, so they root for something to spike the temperatures back to the 1997 Super Niño. Why does this defy logic? Because it’s an admission that temperatures in the tropical Pacific largely drive the global temperature. They are admitting my point for me. As far as the idea that .04% of the atmosphere, which has 1/1000th the heat capacity of the ocean, is controlling the oceans temperature, I again point you to Bill Gray’s missive. But do you understand their lack of logic here; that the small amount of CO2 (the yearly increase is 1.8 parts per million) is supposed to be responsible for the warming of the oceans with 1,000 times the heat capacity of the air, which then in turn warms the air?

3.) I was listening to the sound track from Mary Poppins. No Joke. I love that movie and The Sound of Music.

And that’s even if Julie Andrews believes in global warming.

So here was the first of many Weatherbell.com premium articles taking this apart. As usual, someone discovers what someone else knows, and then the “experts” that whipped up the hype are not held accountable for it. One question I would like answered is: How do two meteorologists roundly chastised for their stance, Joe D'Aleo and I, take this apart so far in advance, while the “experts” have a different take?

The post from April 13.

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This can’t make the SUPER NIÑO hysterics happy. In the 1997 event, once the crash started, it did not stop. There is a huge easterly burst going on now, and while there’s no doubt more will develop further west, this ENSO event in not warm PDO-driven like they are hoping. The current warm spike in the PDO and this coming ENSO is in reaction to how cold it’s been. There is even talk this warm water is the “dog ate my homework” excuse – that the warming in the deep ocean is coming up … from 7,000 meters? The silliness out there is reaching epic proportions.

This is an impressive easterly burst.

Now watch what the 1997 ENSO event did. Once it started its free fall, it continued. But we are already seeing that it’s going to be awfully tough for April to do that, if not wind up as a positive.

The 30-day average SOI value from early to mid March is on its way up, and as the previous negatives drop off it will continue.

Looking at monthly snapshots we already see cool water in the sub surface west of the dateline showing up!

Notice the start of this back in February.

See where that warm water is? Well already cool water is coming into the area this originated in to replace it – and that is only in 60 days!

And it’s not down there at 7,000 meters. We don’t even go down to 700 meters so it’s not the so-called warming from the bottom layers, which by the way Gray explains in his paper. When it cools on top it warms below and vice versa. Duh. You can’t get grants for common sense, nor apparently for being right from 35 years out.

Dr. John Dutton at PSU had a book out called the Ceaseless Wind. At times the wind does cease (calm) but what seems to have ceased more in the weather today in some circles is common sense – or the willingness to look at events in the past.

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By the way, we have forecasted, and still do, this El Niño going to a blend of 2002-2003/2009-2010 as most recent, with 1957-1958 in the mix too. These peaked quickly and backed down, but they were not “non-events.” We have had this out to our clients since March and I see no reason to change our winter forecast available on our website which has another cold and snowy winter for much of the U.S. plains eastward. So to me the winter forecast is no more “in question” than any other future event.

But at least dissecting the major drivers with the physical reasons beforehand gives you a chance to be right.

Joe Bastardi is chief forecaster at WeatherBELL Analytics, a meteorological consulting firm.