February 12, 2016

Shifting South to Republican Country

Neither Iowa nor New Hampshire is really Republican country. The base of the Republican Party lives in the South and West of the United States, which is where the primary now shifts. Ted Cruz, in Iowa, saw an evangelical turnout over 60 percent that helped him win. Donald Trump, in New Hampshire, saw a secular turnout of around 75 percent that helped him win in New Hampshire. Impressively, Cruz came in third in New Hampshire, only spending approximately $18.00 per vote in advertisements while Jeb Bush came in fourth, spending approximately $1200.00 per vote garnered in advertisement. Rubio, who came in third in Iowa, came in fifth in New Hampshire. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie essentially took out Rubio in a political murder-suicide.

Neither Iowa nor New Hampshire is really Republican country. The base of the Republican Party lives in the South and West of the United States, which is where the primary now shifts. Ted Cruz, in Iowa, saw an evangelical turnout over 60 percent that helped him win. Donald Trump, in New Hampshire, saw a secular turnout of around 75 percent that helped him win in New Hampshire.

Impressively, Cruz came in third in New Hampshire, only spending approximately $18.00 per vote in advertisements while Jeb Bush came in fourth, spending approximately $1200.00 per vote garnered in advertisement. Rubio, who came in third in Iowa, came in fifth in New Hampshire. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie essentially took out Rubio in a political murder-suicide.

As the race heads toward Republican country in America, South Carolina will vote followed by Nevada, Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama, Texas, and other states. Those states tend to be more representative as a whole of the GOP and they stand to finally shake out the battle lines between Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio as alternatives to Donald Trump.

According to many Republican insiders, Marco Rubio is the most electable candidate in the general election. Many Republicans and many conservatives like Rubio. They like his demeanor. They like his optimism. They see him as a compelling contrast against Hillary Clinton or even Bernie Sanders. There is a reason Democrats really fear Marco Rubio. They think he is the most youthful, hopeful candidate who can expand the Republican coalition to get Democratic votes.

All of this is true, but there are other things that are true, too.

In 2008 and 2012, the men the party leaders said were the most electable candidates got the party’s nomination and they both lost. Some would interpret that to mean that no one could have won. I disagree. I think rather the party and those who support the leadership of the party are very out of tune with the American public and the man they see as most electable often times is not.

But, and this is the key but, Marco Rubio is not the most electable candidate if he cannot get elected. Whether the party leaders like it or not, Marco Rubio has to win primaries. Losing by less each time is not a path to victory. If he cannot win primaries, he is not the most electable Republican because he cannot even get the Republicans to give him the nomination.

More so, if Marco Rubio cannot rebound in South Carolina in less than ten days, he has a rapidly diminishing chance of winning anything. It is no good to head from South Carolina to Nevada, supposedly friendly territory; with a strong Ted Cruz ground game and a terrible showing. Rubio staying in the race with a terrible showing, but keeping Ted Cruz from consolidating the field only helps Donald Trump.

Marco Rubio left Iowa with major momentum only to be crushed by two minutes on a debate stage in New Hampshire against Chris Christie. Either Rubio can rebound in South Carolina or he cannot. Conservatives will have to soon decide if they can continue to support Rubio, if he does not surge out of South Carolina, or must they pivot to Ted Cruz to stop Donald Trump.

The very issue of life hangs in the balance. The next President will pick at least three justices to the Supreme Court. If Trump wins South Carolina he could pick up enough momentum to sweep the primaries and gain the Republican nomination. From what we know already about Trump’s judicial thoughts, he views his pro-abortion activist sister as an ideal Supreme Court pick. Until recently, Trump declared himself fully pro-abortion and supported late term abortion.

Many Republicans continue to root for Rubio over Cruz. As the race heads to the authentic base territory of the GOP in the United States, actual Republicans will have a chance to shape the field. If South Carolina does not start taking shape for Marco Rubio, Republicans looking to stop Trump may have no choice but to unite behind Ted Cruz.

COPYRIGHT 2015 CREATORS.COM

Who We Are

The Patriot Post is a highly acclaimed weekday digest of news analysis, policy and opinion written from the heartland — as opposed to the MSM’s ubiquitous Beltway echo chambers — for grassroots leaders nationwide. More

What We Offer

On the Web

We provide solid conservative perspective on the most important issues, including analysis, opinion columns, headline summaries, memes, cartoons and much more.

Via Email

Choose our full-length Digest or our quick-reading Snapshot for a summary of important news. We also offer Cartoons & Memes on Monday and Alexander’s column on Wednesday.

Our Mission

The Patriot Post is steadfast in our mission to extend the endowment of Liberty to the next generation by advocating for individual rights and responsibilities, supporting the restoration of constitutional limits on government and the judiciary, and promoting free enterprise, national defense and traditional American values. We are a rock-solid conservative touchstone for the expanding ranks of grassroots Americans Patriots from all walks of life. Our mission and operation budgets are not financed by any political or special interest groups, and to protect our editorial integrity, we accept no advertising. We are sustained solely by you. Please support The Patriot Fund today!


The Patriot Post and Patriot Foundation Trust, in keeping with our Military Mission of Service to our uniformed service members and veterans, are proud to support and promote the National Medal of Honor Heritage Center, the Congressional Medal of Honor Society, both the Honoring the Sacrifice and Warrior Freedom Service Dogs aiding wounded veterans, the National Veterans Entrepreneurship Program, the Folds of Honor outreach, and Officer Christian Fellowship, the Air University Foundation, and Naval War College Foundation, and the Naval Aviation Museum Foundation. "Greater love has no one than this, to lay down one's life for his friends." (John 15:13)

★ PUBLIUS ★

“Our cause is noble; it is the cause of mankind!” —George Washington

Please join us in prayer for our nation — that righteous leaders would rise and prevail and we would be united as Americans. Pray also for the protection of our Military Patriots, Veterans, First Responders, and their families. Please lift up your Patriot team and our mission to support and defend our Republic's Founding Principle of Liberty, that the fires of freedom would be ignited in the hearts and minds of our countrymen.

The Patriot Post is protected speech, as enumerated in the First Amendment and enforced by the Second Amendment of the Constitution of the United States of America, in accordance with the endowed and unalienable Rights of All Mankind.

Copyright © 2024 The Patriot Post. All Rights Reserved.

The Patriot Post does not support Internet Explorer. We recommend installing the latest version of Microsoft Edge, Mozilla Firefox, or Google Chrome.