Joe Bastardi / September 8, 2016

Hermine a Poor Example to Push Man-Made Global Warming

I read this article with great interest, given what I do for a living: “Clinton says Hurricane Hermine was caused by climate change as hurricane drought persists.” I have watched and forecasted hurricanes on a professional level for almost 40 years. So what Mrs. Clinton is asking people like me to believe is that a storm that took 15 days to develop and then hit Florida as a Category 1 hurricane, and then never re–strengthened off the Mid-Atlantic in spite of record warm water, is a sign of extremes. Actually, I am sure she doesn’t care that people like me show the facts, since the idea is to get it out there and rely on the idea that the media will gladly pick it up, publicize it and, once the horse is out of the barn, know there is no way to get it back. In reality, portraying Hermine as some kind of climate change demon is either ignorance as to the history of hurricanes or deceit.

I read this article with great interest, given what I do for a living:

Clinton says Hurricane Hermine was caused by climate change as hurricane drought persists.”

I have watched and forecasted hurricanes on a professional level for almost 40 years. So what Hillary Clinton is asking people like me to believe is that a storm that took 15 days to develop and then hit Florida as a Category 1 hurricane, and then never re–strengthened off the Mid-Atlantic in spite of record warm water, is a sign of extremes. Actually, I am sure she doesn’t care that people like me show the facts, since the idea is to get it out there and rely on the idea that the media will gladly pick it up, publicize it and, once the horse is out of the barn, know there is no way to get it back. In reality, portraying Hermine as some kind of climate change demon is either ignorance as to the history of hurricanes or deceit.

Let me show the reader why I make these statements. I will go to a time when CO2 was much lower to illustrate my point. They say a picture is worth a thousand words, so I will keep this short. Let’s just cherry pick the track of Florida hurricanes from 1950-1974 when CO2 was well below what it is now.

The period 1900-1949:

In the 1940s, Florida was like Grand Central Station for MAJOR hurricanes. And of course, CO2 was much lower then.

So the question is, why is Mrs. Clinton warning us about something that occurred much more frequently in the past, yet she’s trying to blame it on an agenda-driven issue?

By the way, given our hurricane forecast, there are likely to be “better” examples to use later in the year. But they are not supportive of the agenda she is pushing but simply nature being nature. Using a storm that arguably underachieved relative to what more numerous storms have done in previous years as an example of impending climate doom is deceptive and indicative of a person out of touch on this matter. It’s that simple.

Of course, it can be argued such things are small beans compared to other issues that bring up questions, but those are beyond the scope of this commentary. Those who have eyes can see the obvious here.


Joe Bastardi is chief forecaster at WeatherBELL Analytics, a meteorological consulting firm.

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