A Gentle Reminder to People on My Side of the Climate Issue
My brother sent me an article that points out a lot of good things: “The Climate Changes Back — What Comes Next?”
But I want to offer a gentle reminder to people on my side of the global warming issue who are promoting the idea that the drop in global temperatures is the biggest on record in the satellite era.
1.) The reason it’s such a big drop is because it was so warm.
2.) This was easily seen — the forecast here was made in 2015.
Here is where we are now with satellite temperatures:
The peak was so outrageous before that the drop after is huge, but it’s not as great yet against the means as previous transitions from El Niño to La Niña. And guess what? This La Niña is shot. However, the bigger fish to fry is the Indian Ocean Dipole, the Pacific Decadol Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadol Oscillation. Like the ‘60s and '70s, these are due to turn cold (or at least less warm), which would mean cooling perhaps back to where temperatures were in the late 1970s.
By the way, using NCEP CFSR data, the drop is not so great.
To close, I will reiterate my position on all this (seen in its entirety here):
The whole argument as to what is best for us going forward is simple.
1.) How much is man responsible for variances that were previously exclusively natural?
In my opinion, most of the warmth today is likely natural given the tiny amounts of CO2 relative to the entire system, of which the oceans have 1,000x the heat capacity and are the great thermostat of the planet, taking centuries of action and reaction to reach where they are now.
2.) Is this worth the draconian reactions that will handcuff the greatest experiment in freedom and prosperity in history, the United States of America?
3.) This question may arise: Would not the cost of adaption rather than trying to preclude an ordinary recurrence be a sounder fiscal response?
Remember, our own EPA administrator said regulations would save .01 degrees Celsius in 30 years and that it was mostly an example for the rest of the world. Color me skeptical that the rest of the world is going to follow; instead, it will take advantage of repercussions on the American way of life that this causes. Not every nation is our friend, after all, if you actually look at the real world. No one is against any form of clean, safe, cheap energy. I am against economic suicide like we have seen in Europe, which will then handcuff generations from economic peace and prosperity.
Let’s make sure everything is put in perspective. Biggest drop ever? Maybe. But it would not be if it wasn’t the warmest we have measured in the past 35 years. It’s not like it was normal and dropped to -1C.
Joe Bastardi is chief forecaster at WeatherBELL Analytics, a meteorological consulting firm, and contributor to The Patriot Post on environmental issues.
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