By Leo Sopicki

As a result of President Trump’s recent mission to the Far East, China has sent an envoy to North Korea. That will fix everything, right?

China has been promising to help with North Korea for twenty years, but nothing happens. Why isn’t China helping the United States and the rest of the non-insane world remove Kim Jong-un from power? We are told that China does not want a war between the U.S. and North Korea nor to see the Korean peninsula united under Seoul.

This conclusion ignores China’s most likely grand strategy and relies on at least two questionable assumptions. After examining these assumptions and looking at the grand strategy, we will be able to conclude that China could profit from a war on the Korean peninsula.

The Assumptions

Time and again commentators say that China does not want another Korean war because China would be flooded with “millions of computer-illiterate North Korean refugees.” Let’s look at the numbers.

According to the CIA Factbook, the population of China is 1.3 billion. The population of North Korea is 25 million. If half of the population of North Korea survived the war and successfully fled their homeland to China, this would increase the population of China by .009%. Even this small number would not be treated generously by China. Narratives by refugees from North Korea to China attest to this. Refugees are a non-issue.

We are also told that China would be afraid of becoming a target of the war. Targeted by whom? Neither the United States nor any of its allies would be interested in bombing China. If the U.S. and North Korea went to war, would North Korea begin lobbing nukes at China? Highly unlikely. There is of course some possibility of collateral damage, and if the war did go nuclear, there is some possibility of radioactive fallout. These are small risks to take when the war would offer such advantages to China’s grand strategy.

China’s Grand Strategy

China, though undeniably a superpower, has very limited influence near its own borders compared to either the United States or Russia. It has been working to intimidate neighbors through the creation of artificial islands and military bases in the South China Sea, but this has generally been met with resistance from the international community. China is hemmed in militarily and economically. U.S. allies, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and Thailand ring China. The Asian economic tigers include South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan whose competition hurts China.

China’s grand strategy is to weaken the influence of the United States and its allies and marginalize the economic competition from its neighbors. How would a second Korean War impact this strategy?

War-Gaming It

In developing possible scenarios, one can imagine best, worst, and most likely cases.

A best case would involve a coup from within North Korea, with or without the assistance of U.S. Special Operations, which replaced Kim Jong-un with a rational North Korean leader. This is unlikely, as the U.S. and other nations have limited human intelligence about the people who surround Kim. Also, the people who surround him are unlikely to risk their future with a man who poisoned his brother and fed his uncle to starving dogs.

A worst case would involve a first strike by North Korea. This assumes we have underestimated North Korean preparedness.

After a period of quiet and inactivity, the U.S. begins to wind down its military operations in East Asia. The common wisdom proclaims victory for sanctions and moderation.

Then, Kim orders a mobilization. Given the history of provocations from the North, this might be initiated when the U.S. is focused on internal problems or some other world hotspot. The North Korean activity would be noticed by satellite and electronic intelligence assets but would be completed before the U.S. could redeploy assets from around the world.

Kim wakes up one morning and gives the order to launch missiles toward the U.S., South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines and perhaps other targets. North Korea would ultimately be obliterated, but not till after millions of lives had been lost, the economy of East Asia destroyed, and, perhaps, other military conflicts ignited by bad actors across the globe taking advantage of the chaos.

World War I began, you’ll recall, with the assassination of an obscure nobleman.

The best case would give China no strategic advantage. The worst case would be too destructive to be helpful to anyone.

Most Likely: Advantage China

The most likely scenario would involve a miscalculation on North Korea’s part and a retaliation by the U.S. For example, the U.S. might stop, board, and inspect North Korean ships to search for contraband, such as chemical weapons or nuclear components headed to the Middle East. This would be a legal action, as on several occasions North Korea has broken the terms of the armistice ending the fighting during the Korean War.

In response to the boarding, North Korea fires surface-to-surface missiles at U.S. ships. The U.S. launches a series of strikes by aircraft and missiles at the North Korean artillery that is aimed at Seoul, known missile launch sites, and the suspected location of Kim Jong-un to remove North Korean leadership. Along the North Korea/South Korea border, artillery exchanges and skirmishes occur.

Of the 60 missiles North Korea is believed by U.S. intelligence to possess, perhaps only 30 are operationally ready. If half of these remain after U.S. airstrikes, confusion would result in some not being launched. Anti-missile defenses in South Korea and Japan would knockout most of them. Three or four missiles would strike their targets.

What Will China Do?

Chinese troops will enter North Korea “to restore order and limit suffering.”

The U.S. will be too busy with North Korea to risk a war with China. China will be free to respond to a phony request from Taiwan for aid and occupy the island it has claimed since 1948 “to protect our Chinese brothers and sisters.”

Throughout the South China Sea, there are islands claimed by the Philippines and Vietnam that China also claims. In the chaos, China can occupy these “to insure stability in the region.”

As the war winds down, and, one way or another, Kim Jong-un is gone, there will be a massive need for assistance in Korea and possibly Japan. China will rush aid to war-ravaged areas, expanding the economic and political influence “of the benevolent Communist Party.”

Bottom line: Although war hurts everyone, it will hurt China less. International power is a zero-sum game. The U.S. and its allies will be economically and militarily weakened. China’s influence and power in the region will be increased at a minimal cost. Win-win China.

Therefore, the stability of the region can only be restored by putting pressure on China, not North Korea.

LTC Leo P. Sopicki, US Army (Ret.) is an Infantry and Psychological Operations veteran. His book, “Speak Truth to Patriots,” is available on Amazon.