Joe Bastardi / October 8, 2018

Climate Ambulance Chaser Warning for Well-Telegraphed, Natural Pattern

A hurricane will hit the Florida Panhandle this week, as predicted before the season started.

We can’t run from the mud that weather and climate is being dragged through. Every cold shot is now a sign of a Little Ice Age (LIA) for some folks on my side of the debate. I don’t believe its a sign of a LIA, but a lot of my friends use cold as a weapon. If you are on the other side of the debate, it’s because cold means warming is causing the cooling and it’s all because of CO2. We can see example after example across the board.

Here are the facts: For instance, the last time I was on with Sean Hannity, I told him I would be talking to him in October (if he wants) because of a threat coming from the western Caribbean up into the Gulf of Mexico or southeast. That was the Monday after Florence hit. The Japan Meteorological Agency model on Sept. 20 for the two weeks starting Oct. 6 was not shy about this. It depicts a shutdown of the western Pacific and the upward motion around our side of the world (in blue), and in the western Indian Ocean we can see a cyclone heading for the Arabian Peninsula.

And, by the way, this is a big deal for winter since this kind of pattern represents the Madden Julian Oscillation (the MJO is a big forecast tool) going through phases 1 and 2. These are prime tropical cyclone threat phases for the U.S., and phase 1 is very warm in the eastern U.S. in October and cold in the west as we have recently seen.

Tropics phase 8/1

Phase 2/3

This kind of pattern with the MJO is liable to repeat itself during the winter, and those phases are very cold in winter. This is all linked. Because we have been seeing this since August, we put out a forecast for a cold and stormy winter.

If that occurs (think of a blend of the winters of 2002, 2006, 2009, 2014), you can bet global warming will be blamed again.

We are going to have a hurricane hit the Florida Panhandle this week, and its wind is liable to be as strong or stronger than Florence (Category 3, or perhaps 4). Why? Because of all the reasons that have been pointing to it, in a way, since the preseason, given where we had our red area this year (see below). It will then head northeast through the Carolinas into areas that were hit by Florence’s heavy rain. This is the same pattern at 500 millibars that leads to Alberto, Gordon, and Florence — all of which this company saw were coming because of a pattern I refer to as a “ridge over troubled waters.” This pattern is shown by the build-up of high pressure in Eastern Canada and the northeast of the U.S. This was stated quite publicly over a week prior (Florence from Sept. 2), and it was even shown in our forecast before the season started.

Blend of Florence, Gordon, Alberto 5 day 500 mb means

Current pattern

There is the northeast ridge. If you build it, they come.

Look at our preseason “red zone” with nothing in the deep tropics and the forecast for most activity.

The point is, this was all alluded to well before the fact due to natural causes. What do you think is going to happen this week if we are right about this hit?

Don’t be fooled. It was all there before. My job is to tell you the “why” before the “what.” If I am right, that should be enough to debunk all this.


Joe Bastardi, a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting, is a contributor to The Patriot Post on environmental issues. He is the author of “The Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won’t Hear From Al Gore — and Others.”

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