January 8, 2016

Election-Year Economic Outlook

Americans see the sluggish Obama recovery and want better.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs report for December is in: The job growth is decent, but wages remain low. Before the report, economists hoped for 200,000 jobs added to the economy, a slow, plodding increase that has become the hallmark of the Obama recovery. What we got was 292,000 jobs. The BLS also revised the job numbers up for October and November to 307,000 and 252,00 respectively, a net increase of 50,000 jobs for those two months. This is heartening news for investors after the stock market in China tumbled in the first 30 minutes of trading Thursday, affecting the U.S. stock market — and thus millions of Americans. And it seems the U.S. economy made a small recovery. After all, the headline unemployment rate is holding at a low 5%. The fuller unemployment number, the seasonally adjusted U-6 measure, held steady at 9.9%. As American Enterprise Institute’s James Pethokoukis tweeted, full employment would have the U-6 skimming along at 8.9%. But the problem is these headlining numbers are not felt by most Americans going to work and putting a bit away in their retirement accounts. The downturn in the stock market shows that there is distrust in the U.S. economy. What gives? This could probably be explained by the sluggish increase in the average hourly wage, which as the BLS reports “changed little” when it edged down one cent to $25.24. With most paychecks staying the same month after month, year after year, it’s no wonder Americans are dissatisfied with the economy. And that, heading into the November election, will influence votes. It’s time for Republicans to make a case for how the free market can make Americans’ efforts worth more.

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