The term “sea change” means a profound transformation of some kind. Sailors will tell you that dramatic shifts in ocean conditions, such as from flat calm to violent storm, usually begin with telltale hints like changes in the shape of the waves or wind direction or color of the sky — you may not know exactly what’s coming, but you can be pretty sure that it’s something big.

Are we seeing, finally, a sea change in the direction of the 2024 election? I think so.

The experts — pundits and political insiders — don’t think so; they’ve been telling us for a year that this election will be a 2020 rematch. On the GOP side, Donald Trump has already lapped the field, a shoe-in for the nomination. For the Democrats, incumbent Joe Biden is running for a second term, and nobody will stand in his way. Besides, what could be more entertaining than a grudge match between two heavyweights who despise one another?

So, all alone out here on my limb, I offer two predictions:

1) Donald Trump will not be the 2024 Republican candidate for president.

The first hint of sea change on the GOP side: Republican voters are now getting a taste of an election year with their prime candidate wholly disconnected from the crucial national and world issues that they care about.

Last week, we saw the stark juxtaposition of five GOP contenders in televised debate, responding to tough, penetrating questions about the challenges facing our country — while the candidate with the insurmountable lead over all five spent the week in court defending his pre-presidential business practices. And when we do hear from Trump, he’s usually talking about the rigged 2020 election and the monumental unfairness of Democrat legal attacks against him. His anger is palpable and legitimate, but that’s not what most of the electorate is worried about right now.

The Democrat strategy for winning the 2024 election has been obvious from the start: pit their incumbent president against the eminently beatable Donald Trump. They want the 2024 election to be a referendum on Trump, not Biden; they can tap into the deep and widespread public distaste for Trump and supplement it with a kitchen sink of legal actions against the former president that will both provide constant stream of revelations about his supposed misdeeds and keep him tied up in court through the full election season. It’s a slam dunk.

Initially, that strategy blew up in their face. The extent, timing, and nature of the criminal indictments against Trump have been correctly recognized by the public as wholly political. The former president is seen by many as its victim, the bloody but unbowed figure standing tall in the arena. Trump’s polling figures have improved accordingly.

But even sympathetic voters don’t elect presidents to even political scores; other matters are far too important. And prospective GOP voters are recognizing now (thanks to the three GOP debates that critics had dismissed as meaningless, given Trump’s commanding lead) that other candidates — notably Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis — poll even better than Trump in a hypothetical election contest against Biden.

I believe that reality will take hold and that Republican primary voters will soon see the Trump resurrection is a dead end.

2) Joe Biden will not be the Democrat candidate for president in 2024.

Early signs of a sea change on the Democrat side: The Biden family corruption mess is finally being acknowledged by the mainstream press. What not long ago was dismissed as a baseless accusation now has specificity and dimension: hard evidence of over $24 million from Chinese, Russian, and other foreign nationals, delivered to Biden family members through multiple shell companies. It has become too big, too real, and too compelling to ignore.

The Biden defenses have progressively dwindled to the point that they now simply attribute all to mischaracterization of legitimate business dealings, but without explanation — this from the folks who four years ago were quite comfortable impeaching the president of the United States over a phone call that included an implied quid pro quo for some perceived political benefit.

The Democrats’ uneasiness with Joe Biden as their candidate has been building for some time, primarily based on concern over Biden’s age and its increasingly obvious effects, in combination with the unpopularity of his vice president, who would step in should Biden be unable to complete a second term. But corruption is the showstopper, both a massive political liability for Democrats and their opportunity to turn to a more viable candidate.

The two predictions above may be truly prescient, or maybe they are just wishful thinking … or perhaps a bit of both. We will know soon enough.

But what I am quite certain about is that unless both of these come true, our nation will suffer serious consequences: a presidential election, in a crucial period in our history, in which the electorate will not have a choice among two solid candidates — and quite possibly may be saddled for the next four years by a president who is simply not up to the job at hand.