We’re out for a walk, and — whaddaya know? — there’s that battered can we’ve been kicking down the road for the last few decades. It’s not like we didn’t know this was coming in January, but here we are again, and the media is winding up that budgeting blame machine for House Republicans. Those Republicans, by the way, have done their job on seven of the 12 appropriations bills, but those bills just aren’t to the liking of Senate Democrats, who are always held harmless for their part in budget negotiations.

Ordinarily, the shutdown script goes like this: Republicans try to put in some minor cuts in spending growth or make other policy changes; Democrats have a cow; the media plays up those most affected by the shutdown and blames the GOP; and Republicans cave. The result? More spending and a higher baseline for future budgets. This time, House Speaker Mike Johnson decided on a two-pronged approach, passing in November a temporary spending bill that expires in January for some parts of government and in February for the rest. It seemed rather clever at the time, but the result of initial negotiations on the next phase doesn’t seem too promising.

A proposal to clear Part One of that impasse was announced by Johnson on Sunday afternoon. Despite Sunday supposedly being a day of rest, members of the House Freedom Caucus were quick to hammer the deal as a “total failure.” In a statement, they said the bargain was “a fiscal calamity.” They explained: “Unfortunately, members of the House and Senate have done little to force a course correction from this calamity. Indeed, many have been party to it. Worse yet, we are extremely troubled that House Republican leadership is considering an agreement with Democrats to spend even higher than the modest $1.59 trillion statutory cap set six months ago by the Fiscal Responsibility Act and to obscure the actual spending numbers with more shady side deals and accounting tricks. This is totally unacceptable.”

With that announcement, some House members were certainly channeling their inner Who and saying, “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.”

Yet here’s the rub: Despite the justifiable outrage of House conservatives, the GOP isn’t in a great negotiating position. Because of a bare 220-213 majority in the House (and a two-seat deficit in the Senate), they don’t have the leverage to enforce their will. In fact, what was declared by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer as “a good deal for Democrats and the country” could draw enough Democrat votes to leave the Freedom Caucus fuming in the minority again.

Another bad result would be the same old solution, whereby we kick the can a little farther down the road with an omnibus spending bill or a continuing resolution that only assures spending will be a greater campaign issue than it already is. Thirty-four trillion dollars in debt may be chump change to those who created it, but more and more Americans are beginning to wonder when the gravy train will come to a screeching halt and tank the economy with it. Our Nate Jackson made an astute point last week: The Trump tax cuts that have buoyed our economy expire next year. Will those be a casualty of yet again not addressing this budget issue?

On another front, the deal may end up passing without border security provisions demanded by Republicans. As The Wall Street Journal opines: “Some Republicans think they can force a government shutdown this month to force Democrats to accept H.R. 2. But the next time the shutdown threat works for the GOP will be the first. It has always been a political loser and would hand leverage to the White House by distracting from border security.” Smart negotiation, though, could yield them a victory, as Democrats are slowly realizing what an issue illegal immigration is.

After a year that saw the fewest bills passed in recent memory, Americans may be fed up with all the infighting. But it’s a good time to remind folks that elections matter, and the last time the GOP had a trifecta they at least passed a tax cut that helped our economy weather the storm of the pandemic.

Today’s Republicans, unfortunately, aren’t bargaining from a position of strength.