Our neighbors to the north are on the precipice of a massive political sea change. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government is collapsing around him. This is an election year for Canada, but one wonders if Trudeau will be able to survive until the scheduled elections in October.

Things have not been going well for Trudeau and the party for some time. The biggest issue is the state of the economy. Canada’s economic growth this year is slowing, with third-quarter GDP dropping to 1%, down from 2.2% the previous quarter. This reality has some economists fearing the country may be slipping into a recession.

The political outlook was already bad for Trudeau, as his party has been regularly trailing in the polls, roughly 20 points behind the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre. Then, Donald Trump went and dropped a bomb on Trudeau’s reelection chances when he floated imposing a 25% tariff on all Canadian goods. Trudeau quickly flew down to Mar-a-Lago in a desperate move to kiss Trump’s ring, but that move only backfired.

Not only did Trump jokingly advise Trudeau that Canada could join the U.S. as the 51st state in order to solve its fiscal woes, but he has been referring to the PM as “governor.” It’s classic Trump, but it has done little other than turn Trudeau’s own administration against him.

His deputy prime minister, Chrystia Freeland, who also served as the minister of finance, resigned in protest. She blasted Trudeau for failing to show any backbone against Trump, arguing in her resignation letter that she advises “keeping our fiscal powder dry today, so we have the reserves we may need for a coming tariff war.”

Trudeau’s political woes have been compounded by his government racking up a massive debt with a runaway deficit, which has lowered the Canadian dollar to 70 cents on the U.S. dollar. Freeland recognizes that Trump’s tariff threat puts Trudeau over the proverbial barrel, and she’s jumping ship.

Days after Freeland’s exit, Trudeau lost another important ally as the leader of leftist NDP, Jagmeet Singh, withdrew his support. “Justin Trudeau failed in the biggest job a Prime Minister has: to work for people, not the powerful,” Singh said. “The NDP will vote to bring this government down, and give Canadians a chance to vote for a government who will work for them.” After that, a majority of the Liberal caucus called for him to step aside.

It looks like the clock on Trudeau’s term will be up much sooner than October. Indeed, a no-confidence vote could be on the table early in the new year.