Is Russia tiring of its war against Ukraine? The war is now in its fifth year, longer than the Soviet Union fought in World War II. Some 352,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, and the nation’s military is experiencing the worst attrition rate since World War II.

Furthermore, for the Russians, progress on the battlefield has slowed to a crawl. At its current rate, it would take the Russians upwards of three decades to take the entire Donbas region, its stated territorial goal.

Effectively, the war has ground to a stalemate, with neither side making much progress in territorial gains. In April, Russia suffered a net territorial loss for the first time since August 2024.

One reason for Russia’s troubles is that Ukraine has become even more proficient with its drone warfare, now regularly sending drone attacks deep within Russian territory. This fact is why, despite a short ceasefire agreement over Russia’s Victory Day celebration, the Russian military did not parade any heavy weaponry — there were legitimate concerns of a possible Ukrainian attack.

Ukraine is no longer relying on the U.S. for longer-range weaponry; it’s manufacturing its own. According to Fabian Hoffman, a Ukrainian defense expert, 95% of the drone and missile attacks against Russia within its territory are with Ukrainian-manufactured weaponry.

While Russia continues to have the advantage in manpower, equipment, and economic resources, Ukraine has successfully blunted these advantages and is grinding down Russia’s resolve to continue fighting this war of attrition.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose approval rating has sunk to its lowest level since the war began, appeared to indicate he’s open to an exit without achieving his original goals. He recently stated, “I believe the matter is coming to a close, yet it remains a serious thing.”

Putin may simply be running out of men. Over the last five months, the Russian military’s attrition rate has exceeded its recruitment rate. And Ukraine has increased the damage it has inflicted, with Russians suffering 35,000 casualties across March and April alone.

Ukraine has also focused its attacks against Russia’s major economic asset, oil. Ukraine hit two oil refineries with long-range missile strikes in April. The current U.S. operation against Iran has raised oil prices, a boon for Russia, though that could quickly reverse course should the U.S. and Iran agree to a peace deal.

In fact, the Kremlin may be seeking to get the White House to take the lead in an effort to broker an end to the war. Putin may hope that an agreement can be reached that would allow him to secure the rest of the Donbas without continuing the fight.

The fact of the matter is, this war has not gone the way Putin and the Russians had believed it would when they first invaded. Now they’re stuck in a quagmire, losing men and bleeding resources, with little to show for it. Ukraine, on the other hand, appears to be on the ascendancy, even as it continues to bleed men and resources as well. Its military strategy and development, specifically of drone warfare, have proven that the mighty Russian military machine is too antiquated and slow for modern warfare.

One gets the distinct impression that the longer this war goes on, the worse it gets for Russia.