The Populists Win Michigan
Trump’s populist appeal isn’t losing ground.
The big news from Michigan’s Tuesday primary was that socialist Bernie Sanders blew away expectations. Clinton led by 20 points in the polls, and she still lost. She was supposed to have the black vote shored up, what with her political gift giving in Flint. Instead, Sanders squeaked into first place with 50% of the vote to Clinton’s 48%. Sanders won on the strength of votes from whites and Millennials, but exit polls also showed 30% of blacks supported the man. The Michigan result raises questions about the accuracy of polling in other Rust Belt states, most notably Ohio. In the grand scheme of things, the “inevitable” Clinton still has more delegates, but the win brings more validation to a Sanders campaign that was likely supposed to be merely political theater.
Meanwhile, as predicted, Donald Trump appealed to Rust Belt Republicans, picking up 36.5% in Michigan. In the other primaries held yesterday, the real estate mogul also won Mississippi and Hawaii, and he’s doing it with broad appeal to several seemingly disparate demographics. Ted Cruz picked up a modest win in Idaho. As we wrote yesterday, if Cruz finished with strong seconds in Mississippi and Michigan, and possibly a win in Hawaii, it could have been a sign that the Trump Train is running out of steam. Instead, the results show Trump’s populist appeal isn’t losing ground. Then again, 35% of the vote across the board doesn’t entitle him to the nomination, either.
Blogger Rod Dreher notes that the Republicans’ response to Trump’s rise is akin to the eve of World War II, when the French military brass thought the trenches of The Great War were here to stay. Trump is shattering the assumptions the old Republican politicos held about its base — they’re still fighting the previous war. With the rise of Sanders, its something that could be said of the Democrat Party, too.
Next week, the races move to Florida and Ohio. If Marco Rubio and John Kasich do poorly in their home states, it will be the end of the road for the two. And by then, it may be too late for a consolidated Cruz surge.
