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Political Editors / May 2, 2018

Reality Check on Dems' Blue Wave Millennials

A recent poll shows that Millennial voters' support for Democrats has significantly eroded.

A recently released Reuters/Ipsos poll is throwing more cold water on the Democrats’ narrative of a coming blue wave this November. The poll finds that Democrats have been losing significant ground with one of their traditional voting blocks — Millennials. The survey of young voters ages 18 to 34 shows a sizable drop of nine percentage points down to 46% support for Democrats, while support for Republicans among the same demographic remained steady at 28% since the election. And while Democrats still enjoy the majority support among Millennials, the poll reveals that a number of them who voted for Hillary Clinton are now looking to support GOP candidates down the ballot. Hillary beat Donald Trump among Millennials 55% to 37%, but that support is apparently drying up.

Among the young voters who have switched support to Republicans, the largest shift has been with whites. White Millennials, who voted 47% to 33% Democrat to Republican in 2016, now are divided equally at 39% in their party support. Perhaps the Left’s all-race-all-the-time message doesn’t resonate. But it’s not just among white voters that support for Democrats has been waning. Terry Hood, a mid-30s black man interviewed by Reuters, voted for Clinton and is no fan of Trump, but he opined, “It sounds strange to me to say this about the Republicans, but they’re helping with even the small things. They’re taking less taxes out of my paycheck. I notice that.”

That may truly be the catalyst for this sizable shift. As James Carville famously opined, “It’s the economy, stupid.” And the good economy, thanks in large part to Trump’s deregulation campaign and the Republican tax cuts, does seem to be the largest motivating factor. As Investor’s Business Daily put it, “A funny thing happened over the past two years. The millennial generation started growing up. They are getting married, buying homes and starting families in increasing numbers. And as a result, they’re starting to realize that the liberalism they espoused as youths comes at too high a price in adulthood.”

Moreover, Trump’s commitment to America first and bringing jobs back to the U.S. seems to genuinely resonate with many of these voters — young adults who want to pay off college and build their careers. Hope for the future might be the best way to explain the trend, which we hope only continues and serves as an impassable roadblock to Democrats’ aspirations of regaining control of Congress.

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