On February 12, 1988, at Walter Reed Army Medical Center, they gave Joe Biden a consent form to sign. Then a priest came in to give him last rites. As author Richard Ben Cramer wrote in What It Takes, they told him his chances were “just about fifty-fifty.”

Joe Biden did indeed survive that brain aneurism surgery. Then he survived another one. And here we are, 32 years later, with his cognitively addled, soon-to-be 80-year-old self now firmly ensconced in the White House, shuffling cluelessly from place to place, shaking hands with imaginary people, calling out to recently deceased congresswomen, and doing grievous damage to our nation.

Is it possible that his party, the Democrat Party, can survive this upcoming midterm referendum? Is it possible that the American people won’t hold the party to account next month for having foisted this wrecking ball of a puppet presidency upon us?

Yes, it’s possible. Or at least that’s what the New York Times’s Nate Cohn would have us believe.

“No,” Cohn writes, “I’m not saying Democrats are favored. The likeliest scenario is still that Republicans will find the five seats they need to take control [of the House]. And no one should be surprised if Republicans flip a lot more than that — especially with early signs that the political winds may be starting to shift in ways that might yield some Republican gains in key races. … But the idea that Democrats can hold the House is not as ridiculous, implausible or far-fetched as it seemed before the Dobbs ruling overturned Roe v. Wade. It is a real possibility — not some abstraction in the sense that anything can happen.”

Yes, downtrodden Democrats, he’s telling you there’s a chance.

But what else is a New York Times lefty supposed to say — that Biden’s mini boomlet from a few weeks back didn’t have any staying power? That his polling numbers have slipped back again? That the Republicans are more trusted on the issue that always matters most, the economy? That the Democrats are taking on water in two key Senate races? That the strong historical likelihood is that the Democrats will get smoked, just as the party in power almost always does during a new president’s first midterm?

Nah, he couldn’t say all that. After all, they have an online subscription to peddle, and nothing sells to dullard Democrats better than a bit of hope. Heck, if they’d only listen to Nancy Pelosi, Democrat voters would be downright giddy about their chances.

“I believe that we will hold the House.” — @SpeakerPelosi on the midterm elections

See more from Speaker Pelosi TONIGHT on @CBS at 11:35/10:35c. pic.twitter.com/D5Zm9a4Ml7

— The Late Show (@colbertlateshow) October 3, 2022

This effort to depress the Republican vote is what we call Pollaganda. And the mainstream media can’t help it — it’s what they do.

Another important factor: Yes, the Republicans are running against an unpopular incumbent president while the Democrats can only flail at a past president who isn’t on the ballot. But between now and Election Day, Republicans will make the case that they’re actually for something rather than just against decrepit old Joe. That’s especially true in the House, where they’ve made a four-legged Commitment to America: an economy that’s strong, a nation that’s safe, a future that’s built on freedom, and a government that’s accountable These four areas take in the kitchen-table issues that matter most, including the economy and inflation; crime and illegal immigration; freedom from lockdowns, woke education, COVID overreach, and Big Tech censorship; and accountability for a government that continually metes out two-tiered justice.

The headline of a recent Byron York column cautions against overconfidence: “In Midterm Politics, Historical Analogies Work — Until They Don’t.” Point well-taken. But then York throws caution to the wind and tells us why Republicans have reason to be confident:

But the big picture is even worse for Democrats. The accompanying analysis from Langer Research Associates, which conducted the poll, made a historical point that is particularly bleak for the party. “The president’s standing customarily is critical to his party’s fortunes in midterms,” Langer began. “Each election has its own dynamic. But in midterm elections since 1946, when a president has had more than 50% job approval, his party has lost an average of 14 seats. When the president’s approval has been less than 50% — as Biden’s is by a considerable margin now — his party has lost an average of 37 seats.”

There it is. Even when a president is doing pretty well — with job approval rating above 50% — his party still loses a significant number of seats. In this case, a Democratic loss of 14 seats would be enough to give control of the House to Republicans. But when a president is doing badly — and Biden is doing badly right now — his party’s losses are much higher.

Where the big picture is concerned, the winds could hardly be more favorable for Republicans: They’re running against a woefully unpopular president amid an unmistakably awful economy. If they don’t trounce the Democrats in this cycle, they don’t deserve to govern.