Joe Bastardi / August 5, 2013

What if We Kept a Real Score?

According to the longest running record keeper at the North Pole (besides Santa Clause), the Danish meteorological Institute, the Arctic experienced its coldest and shortest summer on record. Did you know that? Much of the warming has been during the heart of the cold season in the Arctic, when temperatures are well below freezing. But the fact that it can’t even get to normal during their summer season is very interesting. Anyone keeping score?

I was thinking about when Philadelphia broke their daily rainfall record on Sunday, July 28, 2013, and what an extreme event I thought it was. But when you think about it, it was something that has happened around that area before, except this time it occurred over the rain gauge at the Philadelphia International airport. Some were quick to jump on it as evidence that more flooding events are occurring, using the very warm water off the Northeast Coast as the reason. What they won’t tell you is that it’s the same cycle in the Atlantic that in the 1930s through 1950s – especially the 1950s – brought a railroad track of hurricanes up the East Coast.

(Fact: When the water is warm off the Northeast Coast, as in the warm AMO cycle, the result is more rain and a greater presence of hurricanes along the East Coast.)

So we have the record breaking rain. But what about all the areas where it did not rain and tied records for least amount of rain in one day? Think about it: Almost every site on the planet did not break a rainfall record, and almost every day, the weather is ordinary across most of the globe.

Of course, no one wants to stress a point opposite of the point they are trying to make – unless you are honestly seeking the truth.

Al Roker is, in my opinion, the nation’s most beloved weatherman (and that is because he earned it!) But he says he has two words that prove climate change: “Superstorm Sandy.” I would remind Al of the more intense hurricanes that made life miserable during what I have labeled the time of climatic hardship for the US, the 1930s-50s – the last time the Atlantic was in its warm cycle.

Let’s look at some examples.

Consider The Great New England Hurricane of 1938, a storm that, had it tracked 75 miles further west, would have put the battery under 20-25 feet of water! According to The National Weather Service:

The strongest winds ever recorded in the region occurred at the Blue Hill Observatory with sustained winds of 121 mph and a peak gust of 186 mph.

I still have trouble believing that!

Or take The Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944. According to NWS archives:

At Cape Henry in Virginia Beach, peak 1-minute winds reached 134 mph with momentary gusts to 150 mph, the highest ever observed at any site during the hurricane.

Other examples include Hurricane Carol in 1954, followed by Hurricane Edna 11 days later. (Can you imagine that? Two massive hurricanes hitting Southeastern New England in 11 days. The media would go ballistic!)

Then there’s the mighty Hurricane Hazel in October, 1954.

The Carolinas had a double shot of tropical trouble within 10 days in 1955: Hurricanes Connie/Diane, which was followed by Hurricane Ione later that same year.

Finally, there’s Hurricane Donna in 1960, which brought hurricane strength winds to every state from Florida to Maine – something that had never happened before and has not since!

Think about that. Seven hurricanes in six years, bringing hurricane conditions to a larger area than Sandy did. I did not even count Helene in 1958 that ran along the North Carolina Coast, or Gracie in 1959 that struck Charleston, South Carolina.

If I were advising Al Roker, I would say, “Al, you have to put Hurricane Sandy in perspective. Imagine if you were on the air during this onslaught year after year, including three hits in one year, two years in a row, from NC north?”

Sandy and Irene may be simply telling us what should be happening until the AMO shifts back into its cooler cycle in 5-10 years. So far, Sandy and Irene can not compare to the frequency and magnitude of the last time this natural cycle hit its peak, meteorologically speaking.

Senator Whiteside of Rhode Island, a known AGW agenda driven spokesman, does not seem to understand that the hurricanes of 1938 and 1944, along with Carol and Donna all brought much higher winds to his state than Sandy did – along with the rest of the Mid-Atlantic states, too. The portion of the East Coast hit by Sandy was pounded multiple times in a few years in the 1950s, but apparently the good senator from Rhode Island and a lot of other people trying to use Sandy for their own climatic ambulance chasing purposes aren’t willing to look at the real score.

The global ace index (ACE) – the objective measurement of global tropical cyclone activity – has crashed since the Pacific began its cooling (and when Al Gore claimed in his award winning movie it was gong to do the opposite).

Additionally, the trapping hot spot over the tropics that the EPA is using as evidence to support their draconian decrees (see my last article) has not only failed to show up, but it’s loaded with dry air which is suppressing tropical cyclone activity.

If anything, this cycle is still more tame than the last one, but I am very worried about the coming several years – simply because of the knowledge we have showing the physical realities of what this cycle can do, not C02-induced global warming (again, they do not get a free pass to change this to something that is perfectly natural – the ups and downs of the climate.)

Wow, dry in one place, wet in another! Imagine how unusual that is … ? One would think, given the hysteria, that doesn’t ever happen. In reality, it’s as natural as the sun rising in the east.

According to the longest running record keeper at the North Pole (besides Santa Clause), the Danish meteorological Institute, the Arctic experienced its coldest and shortest summer on record. Did you know that?

Much of the warming has been during the heart of the cold season in the Arctic, when temperatures are well below freezing. But the fact that it can’t even get to normal during their summer season is very interesting.

Anyone keeping score?

Are we keeping score with sea ice in the Southern Hemisphere? We are concerned about global warming, right? Well why aren’t we looking here?

We are even seeing NOAA/NASA change scores. Watch what they do to temperatures during the 1940s that they somehow “discovered” were too warm and adjusted down in Iowa, Wisconsin and Illinois.

And they can do the trick anywhere. It’s like magic, since there is no way you can say you went back and cited these thermometers to justify making them look cooler – this is 70 years ago! All they are doing is rewriting history to fit their version of the score.

Look at Reykjavick, Iceland.

(On the left is the old record; the right is the “revised one” – cooling the warm period of the last warm AMO to suit their missive to make this one look warmer!)

We can go on and on, but alas, the scorebook would run out of room.

Let’s see, it’s been five years, by my rating scale, since a major hurricane hit the US (my power and impact scale had Ike and Gustav as majors in 2008) and eight years according to NOAA – the longest since the 1800s! Recently, dry air destroyed Chantal and Dorian, and Flossie fell apart in the Pacific. The Northern Hemisphere ACE index is less than half of normal. July found two 5-7 day heat waves – one in the West, the other in the Northeast – in what is a month that, against objective satellite derived temperatures since 1981, is now .4 degrees Celcius below normal for the US and -.11C globally.

The forecast calls for the coldest August since 2004 for much of the center of the US – right where there was talk of endless drought and stifling heat again. (For the record, a lot of heat is going to open the month in Texas, but most of the rest of the nation will have a cool August).

Anyone keeping score? Only those of us that know the truth.

Joe Bastardi is chief forecaster at WeatherBELL Analytics, a meteorological consulting firm.

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