Why We Ask: Our mission and operations are funded 100% by conservatives like you. Please help us continue to extend Liberty to the next generation and support the 2024 Year-End Campaign today.

September 20, 2014

The Return of King Dollar

Maybe the U.S. economy, a weakling for the last six years, is finally starting to flex some muscle. We’re referring to the return of King Dollar.

Co-written by Stephen Moore

Maybe the U.S. economy, a weakling for the last six years, is finally starting to flex some muscle. We’re referring to the return of King Dollar.

For those who haven’t been paying attention, the greenback is in the midst of a rally not seen since the 1990s. It’s racing past the euro, the yen and other currencies. Investors worldwide are buying the equivalent of stock in America, Inc.

If the rise in the dollar’s valuation is sustainable, it’s welcome news for the stock market, for fighting inflation and for U.S. growth prospects. Ronald Reagan said it best: A strong dollar is a sign of a strong America.

This has been a long time coming. And it’s still too early to tell whether the trend will continue. But the dollar has rallied significantly in recent months. According to the Wall Street Journal, “the resurgent dollar has logged its longest winning streak in 17 years, rising against a broad basket of currencies for nine straight weeks.”

One immediate impact of dollar strength is that it increases the demand for U.S. stocks and bonds. But the dollar rally is also a restraint against inflation, as well as a market signal of U.S. competitiveness relative to rival nations. It’s a hopeful sign that Janet Yellen and the Fed may be more effective inflation hawks in deeds — though not in rhetoric — than commonly expected.

QE ends next month. And the Fed is expected to raise its target interest rate in 2015 and beyond. In any case, most of the Fed’s balance-sheet expansion went into excess bank reserves instead of circulating throughout the economy. In other words, Fed policy was never as loose as people feared.

Naturally, some will write off the bull market for dollars as merely a sign that the greenback is the least rotten apple in the barrel. But that’s not giving the dollar its due. It has been gaining strength against gold, which is the best measure of dollar value. At just above $1,200, gold has fallen back to early-January levels. And remember, gold peaked around $1,900 in mid-2011.

We think one key explanation for dollar strength is the amazing efficiency revolution in American business that’s taken place over the last five years. U.S. companies have become the best run in the world as they’ve ruthlessly cut costs.

Credit also the drilling bonanza in oil and gas, which is driving down energy costs for American producers of everything from steel to auto parts to microchips to chemicals to corn.

King Dollar also is a capital magnet.

We’re already seeing this as foreigners flock to U.S. assets. The historical relationship is unmistakable. Periods of sustained economic growth and rising living standards are associated with a strong dollar. That was clearly true in the prosperous 1960s, 1980s and 1990s. And while the strong dollar restrains commodity prices, it acts as a tax cut for American consumers and businesses. Gasoline, for example, is down to $3.35 from nearly $4. The CPI is up only 1.7 percent over the past 12 months.

A strong dollar increases the purchasing power of the greenback. So the money in your wallets and purses buys more goods and services.

Conversely, when the dollar crashed in the 1970s — especially relative to gold — the economy collapsed into a crippling stagflation. From 1999 to 2009, the dollar index dropped by almost 40 percent, with only a brief surge between 2004 and 2006. The economy and wages were sluggish at best.

The relationship between a strong currency and prosperity is lost on the many nations that adhere to the mercantilist model whereby a devalued currency supposedly gives a country a competitive edge by making exports cheaper. Japan is the classic example of this failed paradigm. Its economy has crashed in recent months thanks to higher taxes and a yen intentionally weakened to boost exports. The Japanese seem to think that the way to grow the economy is to make their citizens poorer.

Of course, numerous policy blunders — Obamacare, high corporate taxes, carbon regulations, Dodd-Frank — are restraining U.S. growth and could derail the dollar comeback. But the rising dollar may be sniffing out new pro-growth policies in a Republican sweep come November.

In fact, the best growth combination would be slashing corporate tax rates to 20 percent, letting S-corp small businesses pay the lower C-corp rate, and ending the double tax on profits earned overseas. Then the Fed could start normalizing interest rates.

This approach would get the economy cooking again, without inflation. American workers would finally get real pay raises, while business investment and the stock market boom.

King Dollar is the ticket.

COPYRIGHT 2014 CREATORS.COM

Who We Are

The Patriot Post is a highly acclaimed weekday digest of news analysis, policy and opinion written from the heartland — as opposed to the MSM’s ubiquitous Beltway echo chambers — for grassroots leaders nationwide. More

What We Offer

On the Web

We provide solid conservative perspective on the most important issues, including analysis, opinion columns, headline summaries, memes, cartoons and much more.

Via Email

Choose our full-length Digest or our quick-reading Snapshot for a summary of important news. We also offer Cartoons & Memes on Monday and Alexander’s column on Wednesday.

Our Mission

The Patriot Post is steadfast in our mission to extend the endowment of Liberty to the next generation by advocating for individual rights and responsibilities, supporting the restoration of constitutional limits on government and the judiciary, and promoting free enterprise, national defense and traditional American values. We are a rock-solid conservative touchstone for the expanding ranks of grassroots Americans Patriots from all walks of life. Our mission and operation budgets are not financed by any political or special interest groups, and to protect our editorial integrity, we accept no advertising. We are sustained solely by you. Please support The Patriot Fund today!


The Patriot Post and Patriot Foundation Trust, in keeping with our Military Mission of Service to our uniformed service members and veterans, are proud to support and promote the National Medal of Honor Heritage Center, the Congressional Medal of Honor Society, both the Honoring the Sacrifice and Warrior Freedom Service Dogs aiding wounded veterans, the Tunnel to Towers Foundation, the National Veterans Entrepreneurship Program, the Folds of Honor outreach, and Officer Christian Fellowship, the Air University Foundation, and Naval War College Foundation, and the Naval Aviation Museum Foundation. "Greater love has no one than this, to lay down one's life for his friends." (John 15:13)

★ PUBLIUS ★

“Our cause is noble; it is the cause of mankind!” —George Washington

Please join us in prayer for our nation — that righteous leaders would rise and prevail and we would be united as Americans. Pray also for the protection of our Military Patriots, Veterans, First Responders, and their families. Please lift up your Patriot team and our mission to support and defend our Republic's Founding Principle of Liberty, that the fires of freedom would be ignited in the hearts and minds of our countrymen.

The Patriot Post is protected speech, as enumerated in the First Amendment and enforced by the Second Amendment of the Constitution of the United States of America, in accordance with the endowed and unalienable Rights of All Mankind.

Copyright © 2024 The Patriot Post. All Rights Reserved.

The Patriot Post does not support Internet Explorer. We recommend installing the latest version of Microsoft Edge, Mozilla Firefox, or Google Chrome.