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Joe Bastardi / July 28, 2018

Europe Heat Wave: Questioning Man’s Attribution

I sit in stunned amazement over the complete lack of intellectual curiosity to look at other ideas.

I sit in stunned amazement over the complete lack of intellectual curiosity to look at other ideas. And for those who do, I’m stunned that they don’t bring up the obvious counterarguments. We all know and understand CO2 feedback ideas as to why the planet is warming. I have stated countless times that I see the argument, but the very nature of the entire system overwhelms it. At least I go look.

The Europe heat wave attribution to man-made climate change is the same kind of nonsense we saw with the hot dry summers of 2010-12 (and it’s showing up again where and when it gets hot everywhere around the planet). Still, on the bright side, it gives me a chance to show what we know and how we use it in our job!


Let me propose something for our Euro friends here.

Atlantic sea surface temperatures have undergone two major transitions. The first is the huge drop in the northwest Atlantic from 2012.

Here’s now:

The second is the temperature drop in the tropics, which you can plainly see above. Compare that to last year.

Notice the skinny band of leftover warmth. Let’s make this even more vivid so we can see it better.


Now look at where the 500 mb ridge has developed in relation to the skinny band of warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures.

Wow. Isn’t that amazing?

So, let me get this straight. We are getting attribution to humans when the cooling of the Atlantic — which has been real and spectacular — leaves a skinny band of warm water, the response to which puts the ridge over Europe and makes it hot. The widespread cooling of one-sixth of the world’s ocean (the north Atlantic), which should be raising eyebrows as far as implications on patterns opposite the warming missive, is turned around and blamed on CO2 and “climate change” because the result is a heat wave in Europe.

Warm is warming. Cold is warming. In essence, that is the claim.


There are two major events happening in front of you. 1) The amplitude of the MJO relative to the season over the past two years of the MJO is one. Low solar may be another explanation, but maybe not. Perhaps it has to do with a configuration of a warmer planet relative to 45 years ago. I am certainly open to that. But this temperature drop in the Atlantic, first in the northwest Atlantic and now in the tropical Atlantic, is a big-ticket elephant in the room.

I have shown the 500 mb linkage directly to the remaining area of warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic — again, the oceans having their impact on the air. But more remarkable than the heat being pointed out is what is going on in the Atlantic. And given the thermal capacity of the ocean, such events are likely natural, not being driven by you and me.


Joe Bastardi, a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting, is a contributor to The Patriot Post on environmental issues. He is the author of “The Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won’t Hear From Al Gore — and Others.”

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