Joe Bastardi / August 31, 2018

Nature Doing What Nature Does

I am not in the market to harm any person in any debate. Looking back, I have found that fighting everybody and fighting everything is not what debating should be about. In fact, when it comes to the climate, fighting is a distraction from what someone like me really wants to do, which is nail forecasts. After all, name-calling has little to do with the real problem — what is the truth of an idea?

I am not in the market to harm any person in any debate. Looking back, I have found that fighting everybody and fighting everything is not what debating should be about. In fact, when it comes to the climate, fighting is a distraction from what someone like me really wants to do, which is nail forecasts. After all, name-calling has little to do with the real problem — what is the truth of an idea?

I have been reading and rereading a book called Humility of Heart given to me by a dear friend and mentor, Father Jim Sobus of Huntingdon, West Virginia (many people who are ministers love the weather!), and it has caused my outlook to evolve in a way where I realize that if we keep the debate over ideas about what is or is not true, and assume any event in the future is not true until it actually happens, then there is no reason to debate anything but the idea.

The person saying the opposite of what you believe could be right until the event proves him wrong. Obviously, a book like Humility of Heart deals in matters beyond the weather and climate, but the seeds planted are valuable in weather and climate also, especially given the way I view those things now.

Given my nature, I will fall at times ( I do have Sicilian blood in me — fight first, ask questions later), but I don’t think its “going soft” simply attacking the idea and not the person. Besides, it’s a minefield out there, as it also depends on who you are debating. If the “wrong” person is mentioned, references to your character that are far from true will be brought up.

There is an attempt now by believers of man-made global warming to take control of the narrative surrounding the lack of hurricanes and the cooling Atlantic. Of course, if we get the September hurricane spike that I envision, that will be cited also. As I said on Neil Cavuto’s TV show over 10 years, ago, it could snow cheese in New York City and that would be a sign of global warming too. In any case, the rapid cooling of the North Atlantic from 2012 to now is nature dong what nature does.

This has a counterweight to the southwest with record warmth off the Northeast coast.

Which in turn is feeding back and making the pattern look similar to September 2002 temperature-wise.

There I go again, linking the past to now…

The cooling and warming are being claimed by believers of man-made global warming as signs they are right. But to have a chance to win, one must take adversity and turn it into an advantage.

The idea is being brought up that the rapid cooling of the Atlantic is resulting in fewer hurricanes, when last year the opposite was being pushed. In reality, this is classic cyclical climate theory in action. When it warms a bit due to enhanced water vapor in the polar regions, it snows more, which subsequently causes more melting and cools the Atlantic. A major nightmare for those who believe in man-made global warming is the idea this is the start of the cold Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Two years ago, there was talk of the Greenland ice cap melting, and yet for the second year in a row the warm season is ending like this:

Again, my strategy counters the argument. But by being in the argument, I’m able to show the major potential significant of the weather. Are you ready? That strong North Atlantic gradient is forcing the NAO to turn negative, as a nice place for pressures to lower and storms to form is along that boundary.

In September, that weakens the winds in the eastern Atlantic — and that’s showing up!

If you look closely you can see negatives developing in the Atlantic. Winds are much weaker than normal off the coast of Africa, with increased velocities where the feature that will be Florence is.

The point is, the changes in the North Atlantic to a negative NAO for September are enhancing the threat of a temporary spike in tropical cyclone activity. They’re also pointing the way to the threat of a negative NAO in the winter. I do not believe people trying to make points on “climate change” are even looking at this. But wait, there’s more!

There is a well-telegraphed, major typhoon heading for Japan.

This has been a very active season in the western Pacific, but it is taking its toll, as typhoons take a lot of energy out of the ocean. Sea surface temperatures (SST) are below normal now, though the water is still plenty warm enough for strong storms. Regardless, you can’t blame warmer-than-normal water for this typhoon’s being a Cat. 5.

Look at the change in the SST profile in the Pacific — warming with the coming El Niño near the dateline, but cooling where typhoons have been occurring.

This changes the convective feedback pattern, so going forward in September, there should be less activity in the southwest Pacific. Nature only has so much energy it can bundle up. And do you remember what happened last year when the western Pacific died down? The Atlantic came to life. So for the next four weeks, the Western Hemisphere is where the action will be, including in the eastern Pacific, where systems could impact southern California.

But wait, there’s even more! What happens now may be a harbinger to what happens later.

Cold water from the eastern Indian Ocean into the southwest Pacific suppresses convection. This has the tendency to push the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) into phases 8, 1, and 2.

Look what gives in the middle of winter (8 is lower right, 1 and 2 are upper left):

This would be in line with our winter forecast ideas issued Aug. 7 that calls for a cold winter.

Let’s review how people I disagree with are actually assisting me (for which I am very grateful) ideas that I can use.

  1. Some people who believe in man-made global warming are claiming that the big Atlantic cooling is in line with their climate missive.

  2. From that, we show how said cooling may be leading to a spike in hurricanes because of the change forced in the Atlantic for a while. (A quick aside: About 20 years, I read a paper by a high schooler at the time who actually explained this! He is in his 30s now, but shall remain nameless to protect his innocence. Ha ha.) This may also be portending a negative NAO in the coming months, which is a big-ticket factor in the winter.

  3. The southwest Pacific cooling brought about by typhoons taking the heat out of the ocean may lead to a shutdown in activity there over the next several weeks, which supports more activity in the Western Hemisphere. It may also be pointing the way to a favorable MJO for cold this winter.

I like to take ideas, counter them, and then try to show beforehand (example: California wildfires from May) how one thing is linked to another. But I sometimes wonder where I would be without the whole climate debate. Because when these issues come up, they often open up a treasure chest of ideas for what may happen going forward!

The bottom line is it’s all about ideas. I would caution you to beware of people trying to shut down the exchange of ideas. No way do I want that to happen to people on the other side of the issue. They are giving me things I can use!

Joe Bastardi, a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting, is a contributor to The Patriot Post on environmental issues. He is the author of “The Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won’t Hear From Al Gore — and Others.”

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