Part of our core mission? Exposing the Left's blatant hypocrisy. Help us continue the fight and support the 2024 Year-End Campaign now.

October 2, 2018

A Trillion-Dollar Blunder

I have spent some three decades railing against faulty budgetary scoring of tax bills, but the latest charade from the Congressional Budget Office and Joint Tax Committee takes the cake. The story of fiscal phony math is so indefensible when it comes to the Trump tax cut that you may not believe it could be true. Alas, it is.

I have spent some three decades railing against faulty budgetary scoring of tax bills, but the latest charade from the Congressional Budget Office and Joint Tax Committee takes the cake. The story of fiscal phony math is so indefensible when it comes to the Trump tax cut that you may not believe it could be true. Alas, it is.

The story starts with the CBO forecast in 2017 that over the next decade the national debt will double to 150 percent of GDP in about 20 years. Those are debt numbers that don’t have a happy ending — just ask the citizens of Puerto Rico, Detroit and Greece.

This pessimistic forecast was based on a CBO prediction before President Barack Obama left office that economic growth would average over 20 years between 1.7 percent and 1.8 percent. Growth that low doesn’t come close to generating the tax revenues to keep pace with shoot-the-moon federal spending trends.

But President Donald Trump’s economic program was always predicated on getting pedal-to-the-metal growth of 3 percent to 4 percent each year. (Trump actually wanted 5 percent growth, but even Larry Kudlow and I thought that was too high to aim for. We might have been too unambitious.)

Economist Larry Summers of the Clinton and Obama administrations and many others on the left assured America that 2 percent was the best we could possibly achieve because America was suffering from a slow-growth paralysis he called “secular stagnation.” They believed that since Obama averaged less than 2 percent growth over eight years (and 1.6 percent in his last year in office), it would be inconceivable for a blowhard like Trump to get us to anywhere near 3 percent.

But growth has rocketed to above 4 percent over the last two quarters and it’s a brand-new ball game. Just since the tax cut passed some nine months ago, the CBO has increased its estimate of economic output by a gargantuan $6.1 trillion over the 10-year window of 2018 to 2027.

Because the federal government soaks up about 18 percent of the economy in taxes, this unexpected surge in prosperity will generate roughly $1.1 trillion more revenue for the federal government. The states and cities will also pick up about $500 billion more. Amazing.

Now here’s where things start to get interesting. More growth means more revenue to the government, which means lower deficits in the future, right? Not according to the CBO. It actually now says the Trump tax cut, which was originally estimated to cost $1.5 trillion by the Joint Tax Committee, is this year suddenly inflated to about $1.9 trillion.

Here is how Politico explained the $400 billion rise in the deficits caused by the tax bill:

“CBO found the economy was stronger last year than previously estimated, and that puts a higher price tag on the tax cuts because more people would otherwise be paying higher rates this year. On top of that, CBO now believes top earners will get less of the income pie in the coming years, which means less revenue coming into the government.”

This is the most convoluted logic in modern times. Thanks to the tax cut and other Trump policies, growth is $6 trillion higher. And yet because tax rates are lower, CBO says the feds will get less of that extra money in revenues.

CBO is genetically incapable of giving Trump the credit for the booming economy. In fact, he’s penalized for it. Any sane person would say the deficit is going to be somewhere near $1 trillion smaller as the economy booms. Not $400 billion larger.

Even more remarkable is that CBO says the rich will get a smaller share of the economic pie over the next decade. Wait a minute. I thought the Democrats said this was a tax cut for millionaires and billionaires. Guess not.

Incidentally, this exact forecasting error happened in the Obama years — except in reverse. Because the growth rate was much lower under Obama than expected, the GDP was $2 trillion lower over Obama’s two terms. It turns out the “stimulus” package failed to stimulate.

Trump’s tax cut is only 9 months old so it is too early to say it is paying for itself. But already well over half the projected cost has evaporated because of higher growth. If we stay on this 3 to 4 percent path for another couple of years, the flood of added revenues will mean smaller deficits and much smaller debt levels relative to GDP.

What makes this all the more remarkable is that most Democrats are running for Congress this year promising to repeal or rollback the Trump tax cut, even though it has helped get us to 4 percent growth in a mere 18 months. They are sticking to their script that the tax cut will not work even though we can all see that it is working.

I told you that you wouldn’t believe this.

COPYRIGHT 2018 CREATORS.COM

Who We Are

The Patriot Post is a highly acclaimed weekday digest of news analysis, policy and opinion written from the heartland — as opposed to the MSM’s ubiquitous Beltway echo chambers — for grassroots leaders nationwide. More

What We Offer

On the Web

We provide solid conservative perspective on the most important issues, including analysis, opinion columns, headline summaries, memes, cartoons and much more.

Via Email

Choose our full-length Digest or our quick-reading Snapshot for a summary of important news. We also offer Cartoons & Memes on Monday and Alexander’s column on Wednesday.

Our Mission

The Patriot Post is steadfast in our mission to extend the endowment of Liberty to the next generation by advocating for individual rights and responsibilities, supporting the restoration of constitutional limits on government and the judiciary, and promoting free enterprise, national defense and traditional American values. We are a rock-solid conservative touchstone for the expanding ranks of grassroots Americans Patriots from all walks of life. Our mission and operation budgets are not financed by any political or special interest groups, and to protect our editorial integrity, we accept no advertising. We are sustained solely by you. Please support The Patriot Fund today!


The Patriot Post and Patriot Foundation Trust, in keeping with our Military Mission of Service to our uniformed service members and veterans, are proud to support and promote the National Medal of Honor Heritage Center, the Congressional Medal of Honor Society, both the Honoring the Sacrifice and Warrior Freedom Service Dogs aiding wounded veterans, the National Veterans Entrepreneurship Program, the Folds of Honor outreach, and Officer Christian Fellowship, the Air University Foundation, and Naval War College Foundation, and the Naval Aviation Museum Foundation. "Greater love has no one than this, to lay down one's life for his friends." (John 15:13)

★ PUBLIUS ★

“Our cause is noble; it is the cause of mankind!” —George Washington

Please join us in prayer for our nation — that righteous leaders would rise and prevail and we would be united as Americans. Pray also for the protection of our Military Patriots, Veterans, First Responders, and their families. Please lift up your Patriot team and our mission to support and defend our Republic's Founding Principle of Liberty, that the fires of freedom would be ignited in the hearts and minds of our countrymen.

The Patriot Post is protected speech, as enumerated in the First Amendment and enforced by the Second Amendment of the Constitution of the United States of America, in accordance with the endowed and unalienable Rights of All Mankind.

Copyright © 2024 The Patriot Post. All Rights Reserved.

The Patriot Post does not support Internet Explorer. We recommend installing the latest version of Microsoft Edge, Mozilla Firefox, or Google Chrome.