The Navy requires 355 combat force ships. As of March 24, 2024, the Navy has 293, a deficit of 62 (17%). The 355-ship requirement was made law in the FY2018 National Defense Authorization Act. This long-standing deficit demonstrates that neither Congress nor the Navy is serious about following the law.

Despite mandating 355 ships, Congress has not appropriated funds to add more. The Navy has also failed to advocate effectively for more ships, unable to convince the Department of Defense to allocate more funds for ships. The People’s Republic of China already has the world’s largest Navy and is building combat ships at four times our rate. The Heritage Foundation’s 2024 Index of Military Readiness calculates the requirement at 400 ships. Heritage’s requirement is arguably more accurate because it is derived by experienced senior Navy experts, unconstrained by politics.

According to former top Navy strategist Bruce Stubbs, writing for the Atlantic Council, the Navy’s shipbuilding plans are a confused mess. Stubbs was a member of the Senior Executive Service for OPNAV staff from 2011 to 2022 in a series of top-level strategy positions. He served on the SECNAV staff from June 2008 to May 2011. If anyone is qualified to objectively assess the state of the Navy’s requirements, he is. He says:

In December 2017, Congress mandated a Navy with 355 crewed ships, a goal based on the Navy’s 2016 Force Structure Assessment (FSA). … In December 2021, Congress mandated the Navy to submit the Battle Force Ship Assessment and Requirement Report on its force structure plans for the near, middle, and far terms to meet the combatant commanders’ requirements using Defense Department-approved scenarios. However, Congress reacted with little enthusiasm for the Navy’s thirty-year shipbuilding plan for fiscal year 2023 (FY2023), despite its being the first such report from the Navy to Congress in more than three years, and was similarly unimpressed by the following year’s iteration. This has led Congress to mandate the establishment of an independent National Commission on the Future of the Navy in December 2022 to determine the size and force mix of the fleet by mid-2025.

This litany of events — particularly the unprecedented direction for the Navy to submit the Battle Force Ship Assessment and Requirement Report, the establishment of an independent National Commission on the Future of the Navy, and the assignment to the commandant of the Marine Corps of sole responsibility to develop amphibious warfare ships requirements — indicates Congress’ displeasure with Navy force planning. Moreover, the inability of the Department of Defense (DoD) and Navy leaders to consistently state how many ships the Navy needs to meet its requirements may be a driving factor in Congress’ decision to legislate these unprecedented mandates. During the first seven months of 2022, DoD leaders suggested five different targets for the objective size of the Navy — 316, 327, 367, 373, and five hundred.

Last year, the Navy told Congress it needed 381 manned ships plus 150 unmanned. However, when submitting its budget, the Navy asked for six ships while retiring 19, clearly going in the wrong direction.

The Navy has failed to identify the right number of combat ships to build, let alone being able to program and build them. Our enemies rejoice to see this erosion of U.S. naval power. Sadly, the number of combat ships the Navy requires remains unknown. Regardless of the real requirement, it is manifestly obvious the Navy is woefully short of ships and has no coherent plan to build the requisite number of ships in time to cope with expanding worldwide threats.

Combat Shipbuilding Capacity

There are only four companies and seven shipyards in the entire country capable of building modern U.S. Navy combat force ships. The unique and classified nature of Navy combatants requires that the nation retain a robust state-of-the-art shipbuilding industry able to build the world’s most advanced, most capable warships. Because of continuous cutbacks in shipbuilding since the fall of the Soviet Union, the national shipbuilding industry has shrunk. The industry as it stands now has unparalleled capability but very limited capacity. Were external threats to manifest themselves more overtly, the industry would be unable to deliver higher production rates. Current shipbuilders and their products are listed below:

• Bath Iron Works builds Burke- and Zumwalt-class destroyers
  
• Electric Boat builds Virginia-class SSNs
  
• General Dynamics NASSCO builds oilers and ammo ships and Expeditionary Mobile Base
  
• Newport News Shipbuilding builds CVNs and Virginia-class SSNs
  
• Ingalls builds Burke-class destroyers, LHA 6 class and LPD 17 class for the Navy, and National Security Cutter for the USCG
  
• Austal builds the LCS and Expeditionary Fast Transport
  
• Fincantieri Marinette Marine builds LCS- and Constellation-class frigates

Compare this picture with the shipbuilding capacity for Navy vessels at the height of the Cold War, as reported by the Financial Times on March 12, 2024:

Military shipbuilders are working at maximum capacity. Most of the Navy’s shipbuilding programs are behind schedule and over budget. Recently, a year delay on the first Constellation-class frigate, a year delay on the next carrier, and year-long delays on delivery of Virginia-class subs all were announced.

The nation is in crisis regarding the size of the Navy’s combat force and our poor industrial capacity to build warships. Despite the leadership of the Navy, DOD, and Congress knowing these facts, nothing meaningful has been done to fix the problems. If a major war starts, it will be too late. Due to this disgraceful neglect of our Navy, many sailors will die fighting an unwinnable war.