Patriots: For over 26 years, your generosity has made it possible to offer The Patriot Post without a subscription fee to military personnel, students, and those with limited means. Please support the 2024 Year-End Campaign today.

November 16, 2020

What Are the Odds of a Biden Victory?

The more we view it in historical terms, the more we realize something’s rotten.

Anyone who’d been watching the White House chimney, waiting for their marching orders via a Vatican-like signal, surely saw one Friday morning when Fox Business Channel’s Maria Bartiromo interviewed White House trade adviser Peter Navarro.

“We’re moving forward here at the White House under the assumption there will be a second Trump term,” said Navarro in response to a question about a Joe Biden presidency. “I think it’s really important, before people’s heads explode here, to understand that what we seek here is verifiable ballots, certifiable ballots, and an investigation into what are growing numbers of allegations of fraud under signed affidavits by witnesses.”

“And my own view,” Navarro continued, “looking at this election, we have what appears in some sense to be an immaculate deception. … Clearly the president won this election, was leading on Election Day, and then after Election Day, somehow, in these key battleground states, they got just enough votes to catch up to the president. … So I think what’s important here, is that this is a country of laws and rules. We have a very clear set of election laws, and what we need to do is go through the process. … So until we do that, our assumption is a second Trump term.”

Navarro is a longtime Democrat, but he clearly has some steel in his spine. And his point about an immaculate deception is worth exploring, because the idea that Donald Trump lost a fair election to Scranton Joe Biden still beggars the imagination.

As we’ve noted before, Biden is an uninspiring, gaffe-prone, 77-year-old career politician who couldn’t draw, er, maggots to a month-old mutton chop. And yet he’s racked up a lot more population-adjusted votes than any presidential candidate in modern history, including that young, dynamic Barack Obama during his once-in-a-lifetime 2008 campaign.

We also noted the work of Trump senior campaign adviser Steve Cortes, who put together a brief, plain-as-day statistical case for fraud — a case that includes turnout, Biden’s performance versus Obama’s, thousands of odd Biden-only ballots, and the lack of mail-in vote vetting in a certain swing state.

Yeah, we know: Mail-in ballots were the fraud we saw coming. The fraud that no less a lefty than Jimmy Carter warned us about. But still.

J.B. Shurk at The Federalist has pulled together another strong circumstantial argument, this one based on five highly reliable historical trends.

“If I told you an incumbent president had 52 percent approval on Election Day,” he writes, “and ended up winning 10 million more votes than during his first election, would you predict victory? What if 56 percent of voters felt they were better off since the president had entered office? What if you knew that the incumbent had a nearly 30 percent enthusiasm edge over his opponent, or that when asked for whom they thought their neighbors were voting, nearly 10 percent more Americans expected the president to be re-elected than to lose?”

Shurk goes on to explore each of these five factors in greater detail. For example, he notes that Trump got nearly 10 million more votes this time than he did in 2016 and still lost. Needless to say, that’s unprecedented. For comparison, Obama bled 3.5 million voters between 2008 and 2012 but still won reelection.

“Trump won a greater share of minority votes than any Republican presidential candidate since 1960,” Shurk writes, “and brought more Democrats over to his side than in 2016. More than nine in 10 evangelical Christians voted to re-elect the president. For Trump to expand his coalition of voters so substantially and still lose is historic.”

You’re tellin’ us.

Fifty-six percent of us believe we’re better off now than when Donald Trump took office, and he still lost? To put this in perspective, Obama, Ronald Reagan, and George W. Bush all won reelection with a “better off” number around 45%.

Then there’s that enthusiasm gap, which was actually more of an enthusiasm gorge. Pollsters consistently pegged it between 15% and 30%. And, Shurk notes, “Richard Baris, the director of Big Data Poll, told the New York Post in mid-October that enthusiasm for Trump ‘is historically high,’ while ‘Biden’s enthusiasm level is historically low.’”

But, yeah, Biden beat Trump by five million votes.

There’s more — plenty more — but you get the idea. Something stinks.

Who We Are

The Patriot Post is a highly acclaimed weekday digest of news analysis, policy and opinion written from the heartland — as opposed to the MSM’s ubiquitous Beltway echo chambers — for grassroots leaders nationwide. More

What We Offer

On the Web

We provide solid conservative perspective on the most important issues, including analysis, opinion columns, headline summaries, memes, cartoons and much more.

Via Email

Choose our full-length Digest or our quick-reading Snapshot for a summary of important news. We also offer Cartoons & Memes on Monday and Alexander’s column on Wednesday.

Our Mission

The Patriot Post is steadfast in our mission to extend the endowment of Liberty to the next generation by advocating for individual rights and responsibilities, supporting the restoration of constitutional limits on government and the judiciary, and promoting free enterprise, national defense and traditional American values. We are a rock-solid conservative touchstone for the expanding ranks of grassroots Americans Patriots from all walks of life. Our mission and operation budgets are not financed by any political or special interest groups, and to protect our editorial integrity, we accept no advertising. We are sustained solely by you. Please support The Patriot Fund today!


The Patriot Post and Patriot Foundation Trust, in keeping with our Military Mission of Service to our uniformed service members and veterans, are proud to support and promote the National Medal of Honor Heritage Center, the Congressional Medal of Honor Society, both the Honoring the Sacrifice and Warrior Freedom Service Dogs aiding wounded veterans, the Tunnel to Towers Foundation, the National Veterans Entrepreneurship Program, the Folds of Honor outreach, and Officer Christian Fellowship, the Air University Foundation, and Naval War College Foundation, and the Naval Aviation Museum Foundation. "Greater love has no one than this, to lay down one's life for his friends." (John 15:13)

★ PUBLIUS ★

“Our cause is noble; it is the cause of mankind!” —George Washington

Please join us in prayer for our nation — that righteous leaders would rise and prevail and we would be united as Americans. Pray also for the protection of our Military Patriots, Veterans, First Responders, and their families. Please lift up your Patriot team and our mission to support and defend our Republic's Founding Principle of Liberty, that the fires of freedom would be ignited in the hearts and minds of our countrymen.

The Patriot Post is protected speech, as enumerated in the First Amendment and enforced by the Second Amendment of the Constitution of the United States of America, in accordance with the endowed and unalienable Rights of All Mankind.

Copyright © 2024 The Patriot Post. All Rights Reserved.

The Patriot Post does not support Internet Explorer. We recommend installing the latest version of Microsoft Edge, Mozilla Firefox, or Google Chrome.