We’ll believe it when we see it.

“Hunter Biden probe reaches ‘critical stage’ as officials weigh possible charges,” gushed the Fox News headline. And that’s fine, but we’re not holding our breath.

Were he a forthright attorney general instead of a Friend of Joe, Merrick Garland would’ve long ago appointed a special counsel. The American president is deeply conflicted and compromised by the international influence peddling of his wastrel son, and he’s repeatedly lied about his knowledge of it. That’s why only an independent and fair-minded prosecutor can get to the whole truth in this case. Absent that, you’ll have to forgive our pessimism. Lady Justice Lucy has yanked the football out from under gullible Charlie Brown too many times already. Remember: Hunter Biden has been under federal investigation since 2018. If the feds haven’t built a prosecutable case by now, there’s a political reason for it.

Here’s where things stand, according to the New York Post, which has been on this story far more doggedly than any other news organization:

Hunter Biden, 52, could face charges related to possible tax violations or more seriously, foreign lobbying violations, Fox News and CNN reported. The possible charges stem from a probe into Hunter Biden’s finances and overseas business deals which is being conducted by Delaware U.S. Attorney David Weiss, a prosecutor appointed by former President Donald Trump. Weiss and the Justice Department have reached a point in the investigation in which they are looking into the possibility of charging President Biden’s son with various tax violations and/or foreign lobbying violations, sources told the outlets. They are also eyeing a possible false statement charge related to Hunter Biden’s firearm purchase.

Ooooh, a false statement charge. That oughta scare Hunter straight.

If you have a sense that the fix is in — that the timing here is political, and that the result will be a slap on the wrist — we’re with you. After all, Hunter recently and quietly cut the IRS a check for a whopping $2 million. That’s some serious tax evasion there, and that payment is probably meant to settle that score. (The feds got Al Capone for tax evasion, but no such luck with Hunter.) But we wonder: Will the rest of us schlubs be afforded that same sort of kid-glove treatment from the IRS should we forget to pay “our fair share”?

“I take this matter very seriously,” Hunter reassured us back in December 2020, just before his old man took office, “but I am confident that a professional and objective review of these matters will demonstrate that I handled my affairs legally and appropriately, including with the benefit of professional tax advisors.”

Uh-huh.

So, why now? Why, after some four years of investigation, have we finally reached this “critical stage”? We think there are three reasons:

1. The evidence keeps mounting, and the DOJ’s continued stonewalling has finally become untenable.

2. The Democrats want to neutralize a key Republican talking point for the 2022 midterms: namely, that the GOP has promised to vigorously investigate and hold hearings into Huntergate if when they retake control of House.

3. The DOJ typically adheres to guidelines governing politically sensitive investigations during an election year, which include bringing charges within 60 days of an election. Unless, of course, the charges could damage Donald Trump. Then it’s full speed ahead, even for blatant cases of entrapment.

As to this last point, DOJ officials have debated whether the timing rule applies to the midterms, since Joe Biden isn’t on the ballot. No, he’s not, technically. But, yes, he most certainly is.

Finally, Fox News legal analyst Jim Trusty offers a well-warranted word of pessimism: “There might be more collusion at work than you’re giving credit for. I’m really concerned about the story that came out because it is a lowball treatment of Hunter Biden. You know, 80 or 90% of federal white collar cases include the word conspiracy. We’re now reduced to hearing about a tax case and a rinky-dink gun case, which means by definition, one person. They’re talking about, I think, coming up with the right timing for a soft plea for Hunter Biden to have very little consequences.”

Give it another go, Charlie Brown.