Democrats clearly wanted Donald Trump front and center in the 2022 election, even though he is out of power and was not on the ballot. Many Republicans are rushing to blame Trump for their losses last week, and not without reason. But it’s not all on him by any stretch of the imagination, and American voters who actually know how to think for themselves aren’t going to ditch Trump so easily. Political analyst David Marcus offers a word of caution to those who would too quickly throw him out:

The walls are closing in on Donald Trump. Again. But this time it’s different. Again. In the wake of the Republicans’ performance in the midterms, which ranges from lackluster to biblically awful depending on how many drinks the GOP consultant you’re asking has had, Trump is taking all the blame. The conservative media has declared that they are done with him, that it’s time to move on.

There are two problems with this. First, it’s not really true that it’s all Trump’s fault. And second, it is very likely to backfire and empower an otherwise somewhat floundering 45.

As to the issue of blame, yes, Trump promoted some primary stinkers. Dr. Oz and Don Bolduc in the Pennsylvania and New Hampshire Senate races respectively performed particularly odiously. But he did get a win with J.D. Vance and could score another overtime touchdown with Herschel Walker in Georgia. It’s also worth noting that Trump was hosting fundraisers for New York gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin when nobody thought he’d get inside double digits. The coattails of that narrow loss flipped four House seats to the GOP.

Marcus also notes the failures of Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy to either pick and fund candidates or offer any kind of inspiring message. There’s no way, he says, that Trump deserves all the blame.

So why the rush to not only blame him but insist it means he must be flung into electoral exile to save the party? The purpose of this is to knock out, or at least badly damage, his candidacy now, before the primary fight is really joined. This desire is born of a very real fear that should Trump lose that contest, he will refuse to support the winner and keep his most loyal voters with him. But therein lies the rub. Trump’s exact argument in this case will be that party elites and the media conspired to crush him — and more importantly to suppress the will of his supporters. If Trump voters see a coordinated effort, specifically designed to thwart Trump, they will rightfully be suspicious of it, angry about it, and far less willing to “move on.”

For all the hoopla surrounding Ron DeSantis, Marcus says that shouldn’t be a forgone conclusion, and that would play into Trump’s hands anyway because he “ has his favorite foe in the ring again, the conservative press.”

Obviously, there’s nothing wrong with criticizing Trump. The problem comes when the conservative intelligentsia stands atop a rhetorical Siani Mount, with the tablets of the law in their hands, declaring that the break with Trump has officially been made. They don’t have the authority to announce any such thing.

This come to Jesus moment so eagerly anticipated by so many is never going to happen. That isn’t how this story ends. Tens of millions of Trump voters aren’t going to suddenly, en masse, say, “I was wrong about Trump, I think he’s awful now.” But if these voters see a fair fight, if by the Republican convention in 2024 they lost a good clean race without the party’s and the media’s thumbs on the scale, they will move on from a Trump they still love to a new champion, whether Trump deigns to take that stage or not.

Trump connected with voters when the GOP elite ignored them. Marcus reminds readers, “They are going to have a say in the 2024 election; they will not hand the keys back to the elites.”

The Republican Party needs the primary that is coming. But it also needs to be on the level. The fundamental reason why there is such a thing as Trump voters is that he sensed their feelings of being ignored and disrespected by the elites. Listen to them, treat them fairly. And may the best candidate win.

Read the whole thing here.