Joe Bastardi / May 9, 2013

Do They Even Look?

**Baffled German Government Concedes! “Global Warming Has Stopped…Warming Pause Is Remarkable…Unexpected”** This is a headline in my friend Pierre Gosselin’s Blog “No Tricks Zone.” The article is here for you to read, but in it, there is an admission that global warming has stopped and it’s baffling as to why.

Baffled German Government Concedes! “Global Warming Has Stopped…Warming Pause Is Remarkable…Unexpected”

This is a headline in my friend Pierre Gosselin’s Blog “No Tricks Zone.” The article is here for you to read, but in it, there is an admission that global warming has stopped and it’s baffling as to why.

There is much to be gained from this about the methods of people pushing this issue. The headline above uses the word “baffled.” It should not be, and here is why: Most environmentalists simply will not look at anything that can challenge their idea. The turn to colder in Europe and the far East has been easier to forecast than the US following the turn to colder in the Pacific Decadol Oscillation. The linkage to colder is much faster in these areas, when the Atlantic is in its warm cycle as it still is (I have a de-icing company that supplies both areas, so being right is crucial.) In the US, it lags because the cold Pacific and warm Atlantic promotes drier weather, and when it’s drier, it’s warmer much of the year. Once the Atlantic changes, as it did in the 60s, the overall warmth we have much of the year will be over, too. Getting back to the Euro problem, this was easy to see coming – if you looked.

Example: Look at the winters of 1952-1956 after the Pacific turned cold while the Atlantic was still in its warm mode (left), versus the last four winters with the same Pacific/Atlantic relationship (right):

If one understands the large scale natural drivers, one looks for this to happen. It’s like the US. Did you know that most of the springs of the 1950s were cold, while most of the time the other seasons were warm? So what is likely to happen in the coming years, before the Atlantic turns colder, is our springs are likely to be colder. Here, look at the springs in the States from 1952-1960 on and you will see that last year was likely the exception, not the rule, and cool springs should be expected.

The temperatures and the upper air patterns during the springs of the 1950s over the US are stunningly similar to this year. Last year, the warm spring was the exception – cool springs going forward are likely to rule!

In the following graph are the 500 mb anomalies during the 1950s (left) and spring temperatures (right).

Compare that to this year:

The summers of the 1950s were hot overall, much like we have seen (though this one won’t be as hot as last year from the Mississippi Valley and further east).

Falls were warm.

And so were winters, though what cold there was got displaced into spring.

Look familiar to recent patterns? The wild card is the sun, which is “falling asleep.” That’s a bigger problem, but a subject for another day.

Here’s the point: If you actually look at what happened before, you get an idea of what should happen going forward to get a similar result. It’s nature. The coolness of this spring is going to “wipe out” the warmth of last spring in terms of averages in many cases, and subsequent springs will mean the 10-year period similar to the 1950s will also feature cool springs.

I was on Fox Business with the great Neil Cavuto last Wednesday. You can see the segment below:

I was listening to former vice president Al Gore before my part, and wondering: Does he ever look at anything that challenges his belief? I make it my mission to look at everything my opponents have, which given the barrage of excuses coming out, is quite a bit. But has he ever looked at charts like the three I put up there? (though we can put many more up.) I am making it my mission to be intense about what I believe, but I am trying to be Gentleman Joe, never to demean, just to debunk, as I said at the end. But a bigger question is looming here: Do the people pushing the GLOBAL WARMING agenda – they should not be allowed to get away with changing the playing field to “climate change” because it’s not going their way – even look at anything that challenges them, that would make them search for the right answer?

Perhaps that is the underlying problem here. While their intent of saving the planet may be noble, it can blind them to the true search for the right answer and the misery it can cause. For example, 17 years thrown away now because of a ghost that is not there mounts well beyond just the money we see thrown at a nonexistent problem.

I guess the lessons I learned in the wrestling room at Penn State help me in the way I look at this. You shouldn’t have a pre-conceived result in mind, but instead you should fight hard the entire match. When it’s over you look up and see the fruits of your labor (the score) and if you are the better person, you will come out on top. But when you decide beforehand what should happen, how do you react in a situation that goes different? It’s the same here. If you are “wrestling” by pursuing the correct answer, you will be able to handle the challenges that will bring you closer to the right answer. But if you do the same move over and over again and the move is not working, and you are incapable of doing anything else, what do you think is going to happen?

I guess you get mad and blame everyone around you that doesn’t believe in what you do.

See, there is value to college athletics! (Ha, ha…)

In the end, saving the planet is above my pay grade, but wrestling for the truth on this matter is not.

Joe Bastardi is chief forecaster at WeatherBELL Analytics, a meteorological consulting firm.

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