China Is on Tenterhooks
If President Trump succeeds, Iran’s destruction could spell disaster for the Communist Chinese and their ambitions for global power.
For China and its play for world domination, Iran is a linchpin in several respects.
Let’s start with the most important factor: energy. Ninety percent of Iran’s oil exports go to China via the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, China has purchased up to 20% of its crude oil from Iran because it can obtain it at just $8-$14 per barrel. China and Iran often facilitate oil sales using the yuan — a direct attack to undermine the U.S. dollar as the world’s preeminent currency and reshape the international markets.
However, their partnership is more than oil-rich. “In 2021 Beijing and Tehran signed a 25-year strategic partnership worth an estimated $400 billion, covering infrastructure, energy and transportation,” according to John Spencer, chairman of war studies at the Madison Policy Forum. “Much of that investment was tied to the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing’s effort to build a global network of ports, railways and energy corridors linking Asia, Europe, Africa and the Middle East while expanding China’s political influence. Iran sits at the geographic crossroads of that network.”
Iran is also a military trading partner, testing out China’s weapons that are advertised as on par with American military tech.
All of this investment is now being put to the test.
President Donald Trump is playing his hand very effectively through Operation Epic Fury, which has exposed China to its partners.
First, China’s military aid to Iran is proving ineffective. Indeed, the U.S. is making mincemeat of Iran’s military. This is rather embarrassing for the Chinese, especially considering how they advertise their military goods as top-notch. If this is the best their military has to offer — which, admittedly, is highly unlikely — China may not like its chances going after Taiwan.
Second, China has not come to the defense of Iran beyond issuing this terse statement: “Iran’s sovereignty, security and territorial integrity should be respected.” China is not a partner worth keeping if all Beijing is willing to do is mumble, Stop.
Third, China needs the Strait of Hormuz for its oil tankers. China requires cheap Iranian oil, particularly since it lost a chunk of its supply when the U.S. captured illegitimate Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Right now, China is the only nation that is getting through the Strait without a problem. That could change.
President Trump is scheduled to fly to Beijing and meet with President Xi Jinping on March 31, but he has indicated he may delay that visit if China does not use its influence to help protect the Strait of Hormuz. “It’s only appropriate that people who are the beneficiaries of the Strait will help to make sure that nothing bad happens there,” Trump told reporters. “I think China should help too because China gets 90% of its oil from the straits [sic].” To add emphasis, the president asked for an answer from the Chinese before his visit, saying, “We’d like to know before that. [Two weeks is] a long time.”
In war, two weeks is an eternity. And judging by how quickly the U.S. and Israel have taken out much of the regime’s weapons and munition stockpiles, who controls the Strait of Hormuz may look different by month’s end.
For argument’s sake, let’s say the U.S. takes control of Iran’s oil production while eliminating anything that could pose a danger to oil tankers. In other words, suppose the U.S. tightens the chokehold on China. This would be disastrous for our greatest geopolitical enemy. Moreover, it’s a strategic possibility.
Conversely, that same calculus could play out against us. If Iran can maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz, it will give China the upper hand.
Each move in this international game of chess is a test of two global superpowers. One thing is for certain: The world is a safer place with the U.S. as the strongman, not the Chinese.
China is a selfish partner, not a friend. It will sell its supposed allies — in truth, some of the world’s worst people alongside the communists — cheap goods and then sell them out when things become inconvenient.
This is a game that the U.S. needs to win.