“This process of election affords a moral certainty that the office of President will seldom fall to the lot of any man who is not in an eminent degree endowed with the requisite qualifications.” —Alexander Hamilton in Federalist No. 68 (1788)

If the title question sounds familiar, it’s because 16 months ago, in October 2022, I stepped way off the prognostication reservation and asserted, “It’s Official — Biden Will (NOT) Be the Demo Nominee in 2024.” I speculated then, that Joe Biden would likely take himself out of the running after the primaries for health reasons, and then the Demo-convention delegates would choose who will be on the general election ballot. I think this switch is already baked into the Demos’ political calculus cake.

Of course that would be unconventional, and astute political observers more accustomed to the conventional, including National Review’s Dan McLaughlin, assert there is no way Democrats will replace Biden. But these are unconventional times, and I note McLaughlin leaves his position open to “a drastic health event.”

However, it’s still my prediction, as I noted now 17 months ago, that Biden will most likely endorse Gavin Newsom for the top of the ticket, with a Demo moderate like Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) on bottom. (I do not think that Michelle Obama or Robert Kennedy Jr. will be challengers.

In recent months, the odds on my outlying prediction have gotten better, as more of Biden’s Leftmedia talkingheads and scribes are now openly questioning his fitness for office.

That rising concern is particularly true after the prosecutorial findings that Joe Biden should not be charged for his gross negligence regarding classified documents, as well as Biden’s fumbled response.

The report was delivered by Special Counsel Robert Hur, who was tapped by Attorney General Merrick Garland to “investigate” all those classified documents Biden was hoarding — this on the heels of the Biden/DoJ efforts to indict Donald Trump for possession of classified documents.

Hur’s 345-page report “uncovered evidence that President Biden willfully retained and disclosed classified materials after his vice presidency when he was a private citizen” — more than 300 documents.

But this was the line in Hur’s report that got the attention of everyone on both sides of the political aisle: “In his interview with our office. Mr. Biden’s memory was worse. He did not remember when he was vice president, forgetting on the first day of the interview when his term ended (‘if it was 2013 — when did I stop being Vice President?’), and forgetting on the second day of the interview when his term began (‘in 2009, am I still Vice President?’). He did not remember, even within several years, when his son Beau died. And his memory appeared hazy when describing the Afghanistan debate that was once so important to him.”

Hur concluded that “no criminal charges are warranted” because a jury would never convict “a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.”

Then, the White House handlers of that “sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory” allowed him to attempt a rebuttal of Hur’s assertions in a press conference. After all, Biden’s reelection slogan is “Finish the Job,” and he certainly finished debunking any illusions that he has even a modicum of competency.

It would have been better had they just turned his teleprompter toward the cameras so we could read it.

Virtually all the questions that followed were about his competency, and he was not pleased. He dismissed the question of one journalist by yelling: “That is your judgment! That is your judgment! … My memory is fine. I’m the most qualified person in the United States to be president.” He yelled at another, “I’m well-meaning, I’m an elderly man, and I know what the hell I’m doing.”

Biden also declared: “I know there’s some attention paid to some language in the report about my recollection of events. There’s even a reference that I don’t remember when my son died. How in the hell dare he raise that. Frankly, when I was asked the question, I thought to myself it wasn’t any of their damn business.”

But in fact, according to sources within Special Counsel Hur’s office, he never asked about Beau Biden’s death, and it was Joe Biden himself who brought it up, and then could not recall when he died. Biden has also repeatedly claimed his son died in Iraq. He didn’t.

The public spectacle of Biden’s incompetency issues started a Demo panic.

As our Nate Jackson observed: “The report on Joe Biden’s mishandling of classified documents and then Biden’s press conference in response illustrated what everyone already knows: The emperor has no memory.”

Jackson concluded, “After an excruciating 12 minutes, the press conference was over, and the panicked dialogue about the 25th Amendment began. After all, the special counsel just declared the president unfit to stand trial by means of cognitive disability. How can he possibly ‘discharge the powers and duties of his office’ now, much less through a second term?”

There is no question that Biden has set a record-low bar for presidential cognitive abilities.

Seasoned Democrat strategist James Carville said, “The most damaging thing that can happen to a politician is to have an existing negative suspicion confirmed.” Indeed, 86% of voters think Biden is “too old” to serve a second term.

But never fear, Kamala Harris is standing by! She insists she is ready to step in: “I am ready to serve. There’s no question about that.” She added that everyone who sees her on the job “walks away fully aware of my capacity to lead.”

For some reason, that did not seem to quiet the concerns…

No sooner had Biden concluded his presser than Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-NY) fired off a letter to Biden’s cabinet, requesting that they “explore proceedings to remove the President pursuant to the 25th Amendment to the United States Constitution,” and adding, “President Biden needs to be charged, or he needs to be removed.”

That was followed by a joint statement from the House GOP leaders, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN), and Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY). They concluded:

The Special Counsel’s finding that President Biden “willfully retained and disclosed classified materials” and engaged in practices that “present serious risks to national security” is deeply disturbing. Not only does it demonstrate the President’s recklessness, but exposes a two-tiered system of justice that is indicting one President with politically motivated charges while carrying water for another amid similar allegations.

Among the most disturbing parts of this report is the Special Counsel’s justification for not recommending charges: namely that the President’s memory had such “significant limitations” that he could not convince a jury that the President held a “mental state of willfulness” that a serious felony requires. A man too incapable of being held accountable for mishandling classified information is certainly unfit for the Oval Office.

The House GOP is now demanding the Justice Department turn over the full transcript of the special counsel’s interview of Biden — which will likely reveal much more about his incompetency than the summary report.

Then came the predictably comical defense by Biden’s oh-so-competent spokes-parrot, Karine Jean-Pierre.

A reporter asked, “If the special counsel says President Biden has significant limitations on memory, then who is helping him run the country?” KJP responded: “The president of the United States runs the country. The commander-in-chief runs the country.” In response to a follow-up, “How can he be trusted with nuclear codes?” she answered: “I want to be very clear here. The reality is, that report, that part of the report does not live in reality. It just doesn’t.”

For sure, somebody “does not live in reality.”

Then leftist comedian/commentator Bill Maher dared say out loud what everyone else is thinking, calling for delegates to replace Biden, comparing him to Mr. Magoo and telling his audience: “I guess the question now is, is it too late? And I don’t think it is because I still think you can do it at the convention. People have said to me, ‘Oh, that’s ridiculous. They’ll look like-, they’ll look like nothing. Nobody gives a f*** what they do at the convention. You can switch him out at the convention. … If a guy says 'I can’t run,’ then you have to do it. Then it has to be somebody else. Then it’s an open convention. We’ve had open conventions many times. … They make it up as they go along anyway. It’s politics.”

Who cares what Bill Maher says? Well, he has a substantial audience, and the fact he has now called on Democrat delegates to replace Biden at the Democratic National Convention in August has opened that option for broad consideration.

And, even the New York Times’ Ezra Klein is finally catching up, saying out loud what we projected 16-months ago, that the delegates could replace Biden. Better late to the party than never.

So what are the implications for Donald Trump’s electoral prospects? That is covered in part two of this column, “Trump’s Prospects if Demo Delegates Dump Biden.”

And keep in mind on the subject of delegates, as Trump’s legal challenges mount, if he gets snared by one of those, the delegates at the Republican Convention may also be charged with deterring an alternate candidate.

Finally, in regard to the Founder quote I chose for this column, Alexander Hamilton’s assertion — “This process of election affords a moral certainty that the office of President will seldom fall to the lot of any man who is not in an eminent degree endowed with the requisite qualifications” — was correct given his qualifier, “seldom.”

In the case of Joe Biden, “the office of President” has clearly fallen to the lot of a man “who is not in an eminent degree endowed with the requisite qualifications.”

Politics aside, the national security implications of a feckless American leader who does not have “the requisite qualifications” are already abundantly apparent.

Let me be clear: The probability of the ChiComs invading Taiwan before January 2025 is directly tied to Biden’s polling against Trump, and at the moment, Trump holds a narrow lead in a general election matchup. If it looks like Trump will return to office, then, like Vladimir Putin invading Ukraine and Iran/Hamas attacking Israel, China will make their move before it happens.

To that end, House Intelligence Chair Mike Turner (R-OH) has, for reasons not yet clear, demanded that Biden make the details of a “serious national security threat” available so “Congress, the Administration, and our allies can openly discuss the actions necessary to respond to this threat.” I am assuming this is about Vladimir Putin aggression in Ukraine, not directly about the ChiComs.

Brace yourself, America…

(Update: In April of 2024, according to a well-placed source, a senior Newsom staff person claimed that the convention turnover plan will be initiated in a speech by Jill Biden. In her introduction of Joe, she will declare that he has served our nation well over the past 50 years, and it is time to welcome the next generation of Democrat leadership. At that point, Joe will talk about his tenure, all he has accomplished, and then call Newsom to the podium, at which time he will introduce him to the delegates with his endorsement.)

Semper Vigilans Fortis Paratus et Fidelis
Pro Deo et Libertate — 1776

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