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Editor’s Note: Alexander has written two subsequent columns regarding Biden’s 2024 candidacy, “Demo Delegates Will Dump Biden,” and a follow-up, “Trump’s Prospects When Demo Delegates Dump Biden.” Alexander says that Demos have perilously underestimated Trump’s election prospects, and it is clear Biden has got to go.

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I know, making this prediction 15 months before the first 2024 primary is nuts, but here it is: I believe that after the 2024 primaries conclude in June, Biden will likely withdraw his candidacy citing his age and obvious health issues, leaving the selection of the November Demo ticket in the hands of the delegates at the Democrat National Convention in Chicago in August of 2024. No states will officially recognize candidates on the respective Party ticket ballots until the convention delegates make their decision. I believe this Biden bait-and-switch deal is already done, scripted, and baked into the Demo 2024 calculus.

Wild prediction? Maybe, but read on.

Joe Biden continues to insist that in 2024, “I’m going to do it again.” Biden’s spokes-parrot Karine Jean-Pierre confirmed: “I will just reiterate what the president has said many times … that the president intends to.”

Of course, Biden is the consummate “lying dog-faced pony soldier, so what is he really up to?

Despite his assertions about running against the presumed Republican nominee, Donald Trump, Biden demonstrates daily that he is on a steep dementia slope, but as long as he keeps sporting those cool Ray-Ban Aviator sunglasses, and dodging the 25th Amendment, maybe nobody will notice that in 2024 he will be 82.

So, the question of the day: Does Biden really intend to be on the presidential ballot in November of 2024?

He will mount a campaign, but let me stake out this position here and now: Biden will NOT be the Demo candidate come the general election, and I suspect that in the coming months, enthusiasm for his 2024 prospects will wither. His presidential approval ratings are already deep under water.

Prior to the 2020 election, I wrote that the Biden/Harris ticket was a bait-and-switch, that it was really the Harris/Biden ticket, and that Kamala Harris would replace Biden soon after the election, given that Nancy Pelosi had already seeded the 25th Amendment legislation for Biden’s path to resign.

Two months after Biden took office in 2021, I figured he was on his way out. Three dozen House Democrats issued a formal letter questioning his mental acuity. His bumbling, fumbling actions prompted political analyst Charles Hurt to ask, "Can anyone just tell us who the hell is running our federal government right now? … Who is the president of the United States right now?”

But Democrat Party strategists got blindsided — they did not anticipate Harris’s popularity would tank, falling faster than a polished stone, and would soon drop even lower than Biden’s approval ratings.

Swapping Harris for Biden was no longer an option. Demos will either have to form a unified front around Harris, or have to figure out how to get her out of the way, as they did Bernie Sanders in the last two Demo primaries. Another consideration in the timing of the Harris swap is that Biden will have to remain in office at least 24 months in order for Harris to be eligible to fill his term and still have two full term reelection possibilities.

Fast forward to the date of this prediction — October 2022.

It remains my considered opinion, as I asserted prior to the 2020 election, that if elected, Biden would NOT survive a re-election bid in 2024, though he will announce that he is running and pretend to be doing just that. At some point, he will either withdraw to clear a path for his successor or intentionally default to a primary contender. Of course, a lot can happen over the next 15 months ahead of the 2024 primaries.

If Biden does not take himself out of the running until after the primary, he will have no other option but to endorse Harris, but if she is displaced at the DNC convention, the Demos will have to figure out how to retain their loyal black and brown constituents, and how not to offend their female voters.

Over the next 20 months, Biden has to avoid being a lame-duck president in order to retain whatever constituency he has left, so if he takes himself out after the primary, he can endorse a successor. While I don’t see how he gets out of endorsing Harris, it is possible that the DNC convention could choose an alternative, most likely hair-gel boy Gavin Newsom and perhaps a Demo moderate like Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) on the bottom of the ticket. Another Newsome bottom-ticket outlier is Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

I do not think that Michelle Obama or Robert Kennedy Jr. will be challengers, but I do think that Kennedy could do to the next Democrat nominee, what Texas billionaire Ross Perot did to the re-election campaign of Ronald Reagan’s successor, George H. W. Bush, in the 1992 presidential election – spoil the party.

However, one caveat emptor that Demos are taking into consideration is how polarized Newsom’s political rhetoric has become, and his irrefutable failures as governor of California. His candidacy would inspire a massive wave of Republican “Fear Newsom” voters in 2024, much as Donald Trump inspired millions of Democrat “Fear Trump” voters in 2020 — and they will all be back in 2024.

Most important of all the Demo constituent groups is their largest voter block, women — Demo strategists dependably assume their female constituents are emotionally incontinent idiots, and will, like blind lemmings, vote for the Demo nominee. Majorities of women voters are responsible for the election of every Demo president since John Kennedy.

Whatever exit ramp Biden takes, it will be scripted in such a way as to appease women voters.

(Update: In March 2023, Gavin Newsom launched a “Red State Tour,” which was nothing short of a presidential campaign sweep. In October 2023, Joe Biden declared in an interview: “[Gavin Newsom] can be anything he wants. He can have the job I’m looking for.” If Newsom falls off the political media radar in the months ahead of the Democrat Convention in August of 2024, and runs silent, then that is an indication he is being tapped by Biden and company.)

Of course, another reason Biden keeps up the candidate pretense is to ensure Trump will lead the 2024 Republican primary pack.

Despite all the pundit chatter to the contrary, central to the Democrats 2024 strategy is helping Trump to eclipse other Republicans who pose a greater threat to Newsom, et al., especially Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has proven he is a much more formidable general election candidate across political boundaries. Demos calculate that Trump will do enough fratricidal damage in the Republican Party in the primary, to pave the way for another Democrat president.

Given the amount of hate and division Trump invokes among Demos, and the way national elections are now rigged, Trump’s political balance sheet is in the red, but as Biden continues to decline, that will likely change.

In fact, as Biden’s standing continues to deteriorate, it may become apparent that Democrat strategists have underestimated Trump’s comeback potential. One might only hope.

Notably, given that Biden’s age is a major source of concern for Democrats, in 2024, Trump himself will be older than Ronald Reagan was when he left office.

All being said, there are three wild cards that may change the primary calculus I outlined above — two that put Harris in Biden’s seat before 2024 and a third that keeps Biden on the ballot.

First, the obvious: If Biden becomes more incapacitated and does not return from one of his recurring vacations, or Democrats invoke the 25th Amendment on him, Harris steps in.

Second, if Hunter Biden is not able to cop a backroom plea deal to short-circuit all potential indictments related to Joe Biden’s corrupt ChiCom pay-to-play schemes, which the Demos’ Leftmedia publicists covered up ahead of the last election, he might be forced to resign. Some of those crimes may not be pardonable with just heavy fines, and federal prosecutors may sweep up the “Big Guy” in their dragnet of his corruption connections to Hunter.

As for the third wild card, the one that keeps Biden on the ballot?

Biden’s most sycophantic handlers, his puppeteers, have consolidated a lot of power, and if they believe they can prop him up for another term like the old Soviet Union leaders were propped up by their party power brokers long after their expiration dates, Biden’s handlers will resist allowing him to drop out. But he will. It’s a done deal!

For the record, given the bizarre politics of the last six years, and the success of the Demos’ deep state collusion to take down Trump, and then their massive bulk-mail ballot fraud strategy in 2020, most elements of which are still intact, I doubt all the upcoming midterm crystal ball presumptions predicting a “red wave” will hold.

(Update: Indeed, the midterm “Red Wave” turned into a “Red Ripple,” with Republicans barely winning the House and losing the Senate split majority — despite Biden’s low approval ratings. This appears to be more of a referendum on Trump’s prospects than Biden’s abysmal performance.)

All being said, assuming Trump is the Republican nominee, given the hate and division the Democrat Party can muster up, the eventual Demo nominee may defeat Trump by a wider margin than Biden in 2020.

However, as I noted after the 2020 election, Biden’s narrow 51.3% majority of the popular vote (81,283,501), giving him 306 electoral votes, was the direct result of the Democrats’ corrupt bulk-mail ballot fraud strategy, which they will fully implement again in 2024. Though Trump received 46.9% of the popular vote (74,223,975) and 232 electoral votes, the election was closer than appearances would imply. Biden’s seven million vote margin was mostly in California and New York (precisely why the Demos want to eliminate the Electoral College), but Biden actually won the presidency by fewer than 43,000 votes in the key swing states of Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin.

Finally, to restate my prediction, I believe the most likely Demo strategy is for Biden to voluntarily pave a path for a younger and more charismatic successor after the primary, that this will likely occur at the Democrat Convention, and then he will get out of the way so the delegates can revitalize the general election ticket – which most likely goes to Newsom but only if they can get Harris out of the way. I do not see how they take Harris out, unless she and Biden both opt for a fresh Demo ticket to be determined at the DNC convention.

(Update 1: Biden finally officially announced his 2024 candidacy in late April 2023. Though he has contenders, the Democrat National Committee is refusing to allow any presidential debates during the primary — which I believe is designed to unify support behind the candidate they choose to replace Biden at the end of the primary. Political analyst Brit Hume observed: “I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like this, where you have a distinct majority of an incumbent president’s own party saying they don’t want him to run. … The situation in the other party is nearly as grim, a former president who the majority of the country does not want to see run again.”)

(Update 2: Eighteen months after publishing this assessment, both Republicans and Democrats are speculating that Biden will not be the general election candidate. Notably, however, National Review’s astute political analyst Dan McLaughlin insists that Demos will not replace Biden. He is wrong.)

(Update 3: As predicted, on 21 July, Joe Biden officially bowed out, and endorsed Kamala Harris. Yeah, we gave our readers 22 months notice that he would do so, and it is no small coincidence that his withdrawal of his 2024 candidacy was on National Ice Cream Day.)

(Update 4: With rising anti-Semite student protests against Biden’s policies with Israel, some Democrats have said out loud what others are whispering, that maybe they should cancel the Democrat Convention in order to avoid the 1968 optics of violent protestors battling police. Recall that the worst of the J6 protest optics involved Trump supporters in pitched battles with Capitol and District Police.)

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